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Jonquière


Député(e) : Mario Simard (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ probable

Historique récent | Jonquière


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 40% ± 7% 36,8% 43,1% 40,0% PCC 29% ± 7% 21,1% 28,3% 30,2% PLC 28% ± 7% 16,8% 20,8% 26,0% NPD 2% ± 2% 22,5% 5,4% 1,8% PPC 1% ± 2% 0,9% 0,0% 1,0% PVC 1% ± 1% 2,0% 1,7% 0,9%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Jonquière

Jonquière 40% ± 7%▼ BQ 29% ± 7% PCC 28% ± 7%▲ PLC BQ 2025 40,0% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Jonquière 97%▼ BQ 2% PCC 1%▲ PLC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Jonquière

PLC 28% ± 7% PCC 29% ± 7% BQ 40% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Jonquière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 48% PCC 32% PLC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 47% PCC 33% PLC 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 46% PCC 33% PLC 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 47% PCC 31% PLC 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 45% PCC 31% PLC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 44% PCC 31% PLC 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 43% PCC 31% PLC 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 41% PCC 31% PLC 19% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 40% PCC 32% PLC 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 40% PCC 31% PLC 20% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 21% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 38% PCC 31% PLC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 39% PCC 30% PLC 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 39% PCC 30% PLC 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 24% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 24% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 36% PCC 31% PLC 25% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 26% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 36% PCC 31% PLC 26% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 26% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 28% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 27% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 27% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 28% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 28% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 28% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 36% PCC 31% PLC 27% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 35% PCC 31% PLC 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 36% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 35% PCC 32% PLC 26% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 36% PCC 32% PLC 27% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 36% PCC 32% PLC 26% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 36% PCC 33% PLC 26% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 36% PCC 33% PLC 25% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 35% PCC 33% PLC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 35% PCC 34% PLC 25% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 35% PCC 34% PLC 25% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 36% PCC 33% PLC 25% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 40% PCC 30% PLC 26% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 41% PCC 29% PLC 26% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 41% PCC 29% PLC 26% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 40% PCC 29% PLC 28% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Jonquière

PLC 1% PCC 2% NPD <1% BQ 97% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 97% PCC 3% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 95% PCC 5% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 93% PCC 7% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 93% PCC 7% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 92% PCC 8% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 94% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 95% PCC 4% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 92% PCC 8% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 88% PCC 11% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 82% PCC 17% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 79% PCC 20% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 83% PCC 15% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 78% PCC 20% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 72% PCC 25% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 71% PCC 24% PLC 4% NPD <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 75% PCC 22% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 76% PCC 20% PLC 4% NPD <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 73% PCC 23% PLC 5% NPD <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 71% PCC 24% PLC 5% NPD <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 77% PCC 19% PLC 5% NPD <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 78% PCC 18% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 74% PCC 22% PLC 4% NPD <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 72% PCC 25% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 70% PCC 27% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 67% PCC 31% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 67% PCC 31% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 67% PCC 31% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 67% PCC 30% PLC 4% NPD <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 71% PCC 26% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 70% PCC 27% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 74% PCC 24% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 71% PCC 27% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 75% PCC 23% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 78% PCC 21% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 70% PCC 29% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 67% PCC 33% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 64% PCC 35% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 60% PCC 40% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 62% PCC 38% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 65% PCC 35% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 99% PCC 1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 99% PCC 1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 99% PCC 1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 96% PCC 4% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 97% PCC 3% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 97% PCC 2% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC