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Canada


Longueuil—Saint-Hubert


Député(e) : Natilien Joseph (PLC)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
PLC enclin

Historique récent | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert


2019 2021 2025 Proj. PLC 43% ± 8% 34,2% 38,3% 41,0% BQ 39% ± 7% 38,5% 41,2% 39,7% PCC 13% ± 5% 6,3% 6,9% 14,3% NPD 5% ± 4% 8,5% 8,0% 5,0% PVC 0% ± 0% 11,2% 2,8% 0,0% PPC 0% ± 0% 0,8% 2,4% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 43% ± 8%▲ PLC 39% ± 7%▼ BQ 13% ± 5%▼ PCC 5% ± 4% NPD PLC 2025 41,0% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 76%▲ PLC 24%▼ BQ <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

PLC 43% ± 8% PCC 13% ± 5% NPD 5% ± 4% BQ 39% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 47% PLC 21% PCC 14% NPD 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 47% PLC 21% PCC 14% NPD 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 46% PLC 22% PCC 14% NPD 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 46% PLC 22% PCC 14% NPD 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 43% PLC 26% PCC 13% NPD 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 42% PLC 28% PCC 13% NPD 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 41% PLC 30% PCC 13% NPD 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 39% PLC 33% PCC 13% NPD 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 38% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PLC 36% BQ 36% PCC 13% NPD 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 38% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 41% BQ 34% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 41% BQ 34% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 42% BQ 33% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 43% BQ 32% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 43% BQ 32% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 44% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 44% BQ 32% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 45% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 46% BQ 31% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 47% BQ 30% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 46% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 47% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 47% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 47% BQ 31% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 47% BQ 31% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 47% BQ 32% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 48% BQ 35% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 48% BQ 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 46% BQ 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 45% BQ 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 45% BQ 38% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 45% BQ 37% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 45% BQ 38% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 44% BQ 38% PCC 12% NPD 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 44% BQ 38% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC 44% BQ 39% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 44% BQ 39% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 43% BQ 39% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 43% BQ 40% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 42% BQ 40% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 13% NPD 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 41% BQ 40% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 43% BQ 39% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

PLC 76% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 24% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 83% PLC 17% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 76% PLC 24% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PLC 50% BQ 50% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 72% BQ 28% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 75% BQ 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 76% BQ 24% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 75% BQ 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 72% BQ 28% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 71% BQ 29% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 90% BQ 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 91% BQ 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 95% BQ 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 97% BQ 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 98% BQ 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 99% BQ 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 99% BQ 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 99% BQ 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC >99% BQ <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 98% BQ 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 98% BQ 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 94% BQ 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 90% BQ 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 88% BQ 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 90% BQ 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 88% BQ 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 85% BQ 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 82% BQ 18% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC 80% BQ 20% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 80% BQ 20% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 74% BQ 26% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 68% BQ 32% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 62% BQ 38% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 57% BQ 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 55% BQ 45% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 55% BQ 45% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 52% BQ 48% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 59% BQ 41% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 58% BQ 42% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 58% BQ 42% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 56% BQ 44% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 61% BQ 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 59% BQ 41% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 56% BQ 44% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 53% BQ 47% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 57% BQ 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 76% BQ 24% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC