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Canada


Victoria


Député(e) : Will Greaves (PLC)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
PLC solide

Historique récent | Victoria


2019 2021 2025 Proj. PLC 53% ± 8% 22,3% 27,3% 54,3% NPD 26% ± 7% 33,2% 43,9% 24,9% PCC 17% ± 5% 12,6% 13,7% 17,0% PVC 3% ± 3% 29,9% 11,2% 3,1% PPC 0% ± 1% 1,3% 3,1% 0,4%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Victoria

Victoria 53% ± 8% PLC 26% ± 7% NPD 17% ± 5% PCC 3% ± 3% PVC PLC 2025 54,3% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Victoria >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Victoria

PLC 53% ± 8% PCC 17% ± 5% NPD 26% ± 7% PVC 3% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Victoria 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD PVC 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 NPD 41% PCC 27% PLC 16% PVC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NPD 39% PCC 28% PLC 17% PVC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NPD 39% PCC 28% PLC 17% PVC 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NPD 39% PCC 28% PLC 19% PVC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NPD 37% PCC 27% PLC 22% PVC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NPD 35% PCC 26% PLC 24% PVC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NPD 33% PLC 26% PCC 25% PVC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NPD 34% PLC 28% PCC 23% PVC 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NPD 34% PLC 29% PCC 22% PVC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NPD 33% PLC 30% PCC 23% PVC 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 35% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 36% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 36% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 36% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 37% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 37% NPD 27% PCC 23% PVC 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 37% NPD 28% PCC 23% PVC 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 38% NPD 27% PCC 23% PVC 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 38% NPD 27% PCC 23% PVC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 23% PVC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 23% PVC 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 23% PVC 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 23% PVC 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 38% NPD 30% PCC 23% PVC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 38% NPD 32% PCC 23% PVC 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 39% NPD 31% PCC 23% PVC 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 38% NPD 32% PCC 23% PVC 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 38% NPD 31% PCC 23% PVC 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 38% NPD 31% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 38% NPD 31% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 38% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 25% PVC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 25% PVC 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 24% PVC 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 24% PVC 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 36% NPD 31% PCC 24% PVC 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 36% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 37% NPD 30% PCC 24% PVC 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 36% NPD 33% PCC 21% PVC 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 36% NPD 33% PCC 21% PVC 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 37% NPD 32% PCC 21% PVC 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 37% NPD 31% PCC 21% PVC 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 38% NPD 31% PCC 21% PVC 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 38% NPD 30% PCC 22% PVC 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 38% NPD 30% PCC 22% PVC 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 37% NPD 31% PCC 22% PVC 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 54% NPD 25% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 53% NPD 26% PCC 18% PVC 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 53% NPD 26% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 53% NPD 26% PCC 17% PVC 3% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Victoria

PLC >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 NPD >99% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NPD 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NPD 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NPD 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NPD 97% PCC 3% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NPD 97% PCC 2% PLC 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NPD 89% PLC 7% PCC 4% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NPD 87% PLC 13% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NPD 84% PLC 16% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NPD 74% PLC 26% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 90% NPD 9% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 93% NPD 7% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 94% NPD 6% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 95% NPD 5% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 97% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 97% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 98% NPD 2% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 98% NPD 2% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 93% NPD 7% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 94% NPD 6% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 94% NPD 6% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 86% NPD 14% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 90% NPD 10% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 87% NPD 13% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 87% NPD 13% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 87% NPD 13% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 90% NPD 10% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 91% NPD 9% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 93% NPD 7% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 92% NPD 8% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 90% NPD 10% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 85% NPD 15% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 87% NPD 13% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 89% NPD 11% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 90% NPD 10% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 88% NPD 12% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC 89% NPD 11% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 90% NPD 10% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 69% NPD 31% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 72% NPD 28% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 81% NPD 19% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 87% NPD 13% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 89% NPD 11% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 91% NPD 9% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 94% NPD 6% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 86% NPD 14% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC