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Dernière mise à jour: 20 juin 2021
| Chef | Erin O'Toole |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2019 | 34.3% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 30.1% ± 4.3% |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 119 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 111 ± 29 |
Liste des circonscriptions favorables au Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris–Moose Mountain |  |
 |
PCC solide | >99% |
| 2. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 3. | Battle River–Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 4. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 5. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 6. | Sentier Carlton–Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 7. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 8. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 9. | Yorkton–Melville | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 10. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 11. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 12. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 13. | Portage–Lisgar |  |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 14. | Peace River–Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 15. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 16. | Red Deer–Mountain View | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 17. | Red Deer–Lacombe | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 18. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 19. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 20. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 21. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 22. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 23. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 24. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 25. | Banff–Airdrie | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 26. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 27. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 28. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 29. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 30. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 31. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke |  |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 32. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 33. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis |  |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 34. | Cariboo–Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 35. | Brandon–Souris | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 36. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 37. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 38. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 39. | St. Albert–Edmonton | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 40. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 41. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 42. | Chilliwack–Hope | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 43. | Mégantic–L`Érable | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 44. | Haldimand–Norfolk | |
 |
PCC solide | >99% |
| 45. | Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 46. | Regina–Qu`Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 47. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 48. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 49. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 50. | Lévis–Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 51. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 52. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 53. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 54. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 55. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 56. | Sarnia–Lambton | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 57. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | >99% |
| 58. | Richmond–Arthabaska | |
|
PCC probable | 99% |
| 59. | York–Simcoe | |
|
PCC probable | 99% |
| 60. | Perth–Wellington | |
|
PCC probable | 99% |
| 61. | Wellington–Halton Hills | |
|
PCC probable | 99% |
| 62. | Tobique–Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC probable | 99% |
| 63. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC probable | 98% |
| 64. | Calgary Forest Lawn | |
|
PCC probable | 98% |
| 65. | Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 98% |
| 66. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 97% |
| 67. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | |
|
PCC probable | 97% |
| 68. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | |
|
PCC probable | 97% |
| 69. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC probable | 97% |
| 70. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | |
|
PCC probable | 97% |
| 71. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC probable | 96% |
| 72. | Beauce | |
|
PCC probable | 96% |
| 73. | Langley–Aldergrove | |
|
PCC probable | 96% |
| 74. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC probable | 96% |
| 75. | Huron–Bruce | |
|
PCC probable | 96% |
| 76. | Barrie–Innisfil | |
|
PCC probable | 95% |
| 77. | Regina–Wascana | |
|
PCC probable | 95% |
| 78. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC probable | 95% |
| 79. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC probable | 94% |
| 80. | Durham | |
|
PCC probable | 93% |
| 81. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 93% |
| 82. | Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | |
|
PCC probable | 93% |
| 83. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 92% |
| 84. | Simcoe–Grey | |
|
PCC probable | 90% |
| 85. | Richmond-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 89% |
| 86. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | |
|
PCC enclin | 89% |
| 87. | Carleton | |
|
PCC enclin | 88% |
| 88. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | |
|
PCC enclin | 86% |
| 89. | Brantford–Brant | |
|
PCC enclin | 85% |
| 90. | Markham–Unionville | |
|
PCC enclin | 82% |
| 91. | Kelowna–Lake Country | |
|
PCC enclin | 82% |
| 92. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC enclin | 82% |
| 93. | Dufferin–Caledon | |
|
PCC enclin | 81% |
| 94. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 81% |
| 95. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | |
|
PCC enclin | 80% |
| 96. | Regina–Lewvan | |
|
PCC enclin | 79% |
| 97. | Kildonan–St. Paul | |
|
PCC enclin | 79% |
| 98. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | |
|
PCC enclin | 78% |
| 99. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 77% |
| 100. | Kootenay–Columbia | |
|
PCC enclin | 72% |
| 101. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
Pivot | 70% |
| 102. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot | 69% |
| 103. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot | 69% |
| 104. | Surrey-Sud–White Rock | |
|
Pivot | 68% |
| 105. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | |
|
Pivot | 60% |
| 106. | Saskatoon–University | |
|
Pivot | 60% |
| 107. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | |
 |
Pivot | 57% |
| 108. | Oshawa | |
|
Pivot | 55% |
| 109. | Edmonton Mill Woods | |
|
Pivot | 53% |
| 110. | Northumberland–Peterborough-Sud | |
|
Pivot | 53% |
| 111. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Rivière Churchill | |
|
Pivot | 53% |
| 112. | Nova-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot | 52% |
| 113. | Niagara Falls | |
|
Pivot | 52% |
| 114. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot | 48% |
| 115. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | |
|
Pivot | 45% |
| 116. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | |
|
Pivot | 45% |
| 117. | Essex | |
|
Pivot | 44% |
| 118. | Cloverdale–Langley City | |
|
Pivot | 39% |
| 119. | Kenora | |
|
Pivot | 35% |
| 120. | Richmond Hill | |
 |
Pivot | 33% |
| 121. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
Pivot | 32% |
| 122. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
Pivot | 32% |
| 123. | Kitchener–Conestoga | |
|
Pivot | 31% |
| 124. | King–Vaughan | |
|
PLC enclin | 27% |
| 125. | Markham–Stouffville | |
|
PLC enclin | 25% |
| 126. | Baie de Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 23% |
| 127. | Kitchener-Sud–Hespeler | |
|
PLC enclin | 19% |
| 128. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
Pivot | 18% |
| 129. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix | |
|
BQ enclin | 17% |
| 130. | York-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 17% |
| 131. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | |
|
PLC enclin | 15% |
| 132. | Peterborough–Kawartha | |
|
PLC enclin | 14% |
| 133. | Beauport–Limoilou | |
|
Pivot | 13% |
| 134. | Newmarket–Aurora | |
|
PLC enclin | 13% |
| 135. | Kanata–Carleton | |
|
PLC probable | 9% |
| 136. | Cumberland–Colchester | |
|
PLC probable | 9% |
| 137. | Fredericton | |
|
PLC enclin | 9% |
| 138. | Oakville | |
|
PLC probable | 9% |
| 139. | Sault Ste. Marie | |
|
PLC enclin | 8% |
| 140. | Niagara-Centre | |
|
Pivot | 7% |
| 141. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 6% |
| 142. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 4% |
| 143. | Sydney–Victoria | |
|
PLC probable | 4% |
| 144. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | 4% |
| 145. | Oakville-Nord–Burlington | |
|
PLC probable | 4% |
| 146. | Cape Breton–Canso | |
|
PLC probable | 3% |
| 147. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 3% |
| 148. | Cambridge | |
|
PLC probable | 3% |
| 149. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | |
|
PLC probable | 2% |
| 150. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | |
|
PLC probable | 2% |
| 151. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | |
|
Pivot | 2% |
| 152. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 2% |
| 153. | Scarborough–Agincourt | |
|
PLC probable | 2% |
| 154. | Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest | |
 |
NPD probable | 2% |
| 155. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 2% |
| 156. | Egmont |  |
|
PLC probable | 2% |
| 157. | Nepean | |
|
PLC probable | 1% |
| 158. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | |
 |
Pivot | 1% |
| 159. | Saint John–Rothesay | |
|
PLC probable | 1% |
| 160. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | |
|
PLC probable | 1% |
| 161. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PLC probable | 1% |
| 162. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | <1% |
| 163. | Milton | |
|
PLC probable | <1% |
| 164. | Windsor–Tecumseh | |
|
Pivot | <1% |
| 165. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | |
|
PLC probable | <1% |
| 166. | Bonavista–Burin–Trinity |  |
|
PLC probable | <1% |
| 167. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | <1% |
| 168. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | |
|
PLC probable | <1% |