Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 21 juillet 2024
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 42,0 % ± 4,0 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 212 [179-234] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 21 juillet 2024
Projection de sièges | 21 juillet 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Calgary Shephard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Carleton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Kelowna | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 97. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 98. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 99. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 100. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 101. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 102. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 103. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 104. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 105. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 106. | Peterborough | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 107. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 108. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 109. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 110. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 111. | Essex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 112. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 113. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 114. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 115. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 116. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 117. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 118. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 119. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 120. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 121. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 122. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 123. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 124. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 125. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 126. | London-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 127. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 128. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 129. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 130. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 131. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 132. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 133. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 134. | Cambridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 135. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 136. | Delta | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 137. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 138. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 139. | St. Catharines | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 140. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 141. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 142. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 143. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 144. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 145. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 146. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 147. | Kanata | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 148. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 149. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 150. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 151. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 152. | Burlington | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 153. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 154. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 155. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 156. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 157. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 158. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 159. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 160. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 161. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 162. | Whitby | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 163. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 164. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 165. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 166. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 167. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 168. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 169. | Sudbury | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 170. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 171. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC enclin | 90 % |
| 172. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 173. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 174. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 175. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 176. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 177. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 178. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 179. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 180. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 181. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 182. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 183. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 184. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 185. | Malpeque |  |
|
PCC enclin | 80 % |
| 186. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 187. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC enclin | 78 % |
| 188. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 189. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC enclin | 74 % |
| 190. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 72 % |
| 191. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 70 % |
| 192. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 193. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 194. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 67 % |
| 195. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 196. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 66 % |
| 197. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % |
| 198. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 64 % |
| 199. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 200. | London-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 61 % |
| 201. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 60 % |
| 202. | Labrador | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 203. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 204. | Waterloo | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 205. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 206. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 207. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 208. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 52 % |
| 209. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 210. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 51 % |
| 211. | Guelph | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 212. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 50 % |
| 213. | Kings—Hants | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 214. | Egmont | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 215. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 216. | Charlottetown | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 217. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 218. | Avalon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 219. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 220. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 36 % |
| 221. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 33 % |
| 222. | Cardigan | |
|
PLC enclin | 27 % |
| 223. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 25 % |
| 224. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 225. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 226. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 227. | Orléans | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 228. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 22 % |
| 229. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 230. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | |
|
PLC enclin | 18 % |
| 231. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 16 % |
| 232. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 233. | Kitchener-Centre | |
 |
PVC enclin | 11 % |
| 234. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 235. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 236. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 10 % |
| 237. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PLC probable | 10 % |
| 238. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | 9 % |
| 239. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 240. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
NPD probable | 8 % |
| 241. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 242. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
NPD probable | 7 % |
| 243. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 244. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 245. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
|
PVC probable | 5 % |
| 246. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
NPD probable | 4 % |
| 247. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | |
|
NPD probable | 4 % |
| 248. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 249. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC enclin | 3 % |
| 250. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 251. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 252. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
NPD probable | 2 % |
| 253. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
| 254. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 255. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 256. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |