Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 22 juin 2025
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2025 | 41.3% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 40,2 % ± 4,4 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 144 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 135 [92-173] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.
Projection du vote | 22 juin 2025
Projection de sièges | 22 juin 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2025 | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Portage—Lisgar |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Thornhill |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Brandon—Souris | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 49. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 50. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 51. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 52. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 53. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 54. | Essex | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 55. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 56. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 57. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 58. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 59. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 60. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 61. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 62. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 63. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 64. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 65. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 66. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 67. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 68. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 69. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 70. | Oxford | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 71. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 72. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 73. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 74. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 75. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 76. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 77. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 78. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 79. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 80. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 81. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 82. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 83. | Huron—Bruce | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 84. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 85. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 86. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 87. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 88. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
PCC enclin | 90 % |
| 89. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 90. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 91. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 92. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 93. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 94. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 95. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 96. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 97. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 98. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 99. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 100. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 101. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 102. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 103. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 104. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 105. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 106. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 107. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 108. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 109. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 110. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 111. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 112. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 113. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 114. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 115. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 69 % |
| 116. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 117. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 118. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 119. | Oshawa | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 120. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 121. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 122. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 123. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 124. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 125. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 126. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 127. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 128. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 129. | Kelowna | |
 |
Pivot PLC/PCC | 55 % |
| 130. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 131. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 132. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 133. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 134. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 135. | Cambridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 136. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 137. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 138. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 139. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 140. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 141. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 44 % |
| 142. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 143. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 144. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/PVC | 42 % |
| 145. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 146. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 39 % |
| 147. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 148. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 149. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 150. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 151. | Surrey Newton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 152. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 153. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 154. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 30 % |
| 155. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PLC enclin | 30 % |
| 156. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 29 % |
| 157. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 24 % |
| 158. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 159. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 160. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 161. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 162. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PLC enclin | 21 % |
| 163. | Delta | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 164. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 165. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
 |
NPD enclin | 20 % |
| 166. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 19 % |
| 167. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 18 % |
| 168. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PLC enclin | 17 % |
| 169. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 170. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 171. | Carleton | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 172. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 173. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 174. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 175. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 176. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC enclin | 10 % |
| 177. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
PLC enclin | 8 % |
| 178. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 179. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 180. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 181. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 182. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 183. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 184. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 185. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 186. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 187. | Egmont |  |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 188. | Nunavut |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 4 % |
| 189. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 190. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 191. | Hamilton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 3 % |
| 192. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 193. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 194. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 195. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 196. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 197. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 198. | Jonquière | |
 |
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 199. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 200. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 201. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 202. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 203. | Sudbury | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 204. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |