Parti conservateur du Canada

Dernière mise à jour: 26 mars 2023
Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
Projection de vote actuelle | 34,1 % ± 4,2 % |
Nombre actuel de députés-es | 118 |
Projection de sièges actuelle | 140 [110-170] |
* L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire,
mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 26 mars 2023
Projection de sièges | 26 mars 2023
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Souris–Moose Mountain | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
2. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
3. | Battle River–Crowfoot | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
4. | Bow River | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
5. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
6. | Lakeland | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
7. | Yorkton–Melville | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
8. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
9. | Red Deer–Lacombe | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
10. | Foothills | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
11. | Yellowhead | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
12. | Sentier Carlton–Eagle Creek | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
13. | Red Deer–Mountain View | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
14. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
15. | Prince Albert | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
16. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
17. | Mégantic–L’Érable | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
18. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
19. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
20. | Peace River–Westlock | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
21. | Regina–Qu’Appelle | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
22. | Calgary Shepard | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
23. | Calgary Midnapore | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
24. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
25. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
26. | Beauce | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
27. | Calgary Signal Hill | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
28. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
29. | Cariboo–Prince George | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
30. | Lévis–Lotbinière | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
31. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
32. | Calgary Heritage | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
33. | Lethbridge | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
34. | Banff–Airdrie | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
35. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
36. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
37. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
38. | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
39. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
40. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
41. | Richmond–Arthabaska | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
42. | Huron–Bruce | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
43. | Wellington–Halton Hills | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
44. | Calgary Nose Hill | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
45. | Tobique–Mactaquac | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
46. | Portage–Lisgar | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
47. | Abbotsford | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
48. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
49. | Haldimand–Norfolk | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
50. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
51. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
52. | Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
53. | Perth–Wellington | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
54. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
55. | Langley–Aldergrove | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
56. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
57. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
58. | Barrie–Innisfil | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
59. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
60. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
61. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
62. | Fundy Royal | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
63. | Oxford | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
64. | Simcoe–Grey | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
65. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
66. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
67. | Chilliwack–Hope | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
68. | Dufferin–Caledon | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
69. | Sarnia–Lambton | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
70. | Kelowna–Lake Country | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
71. | Provencher | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
72. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
73. | Niagara-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
74. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
75. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
76. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
77. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
78. | Nova-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
79. | Carleton | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
80. | Simcoe-Nord | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
81. | Brandon–Souris | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
82. | York–Simcoe | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
83. | Brantford–Brant | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
84. | Northumberland–Peterborough-Sud | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
85. | Regina–Wascana | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
86. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
87. | Durham | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
88. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Rivière Churchill | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
89. | Cumberland–Colchester | ![]() |
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PCC solide | > 99 % |
90. | Edmonton-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
91. | Thornhill | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
92. | Edmonton Riverbend | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
93. | Kootenay–Columbia | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
94. | Calgary-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
95. | Niagara Falls | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
96. | Baie de Quinte | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
97. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
98. | Peterborough–Kawartha | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 99 % |
99. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 98 % |
100. | Calgary Forest Lawn | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 98 % |
101. | Calgary Confederation | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 98 % |
102. | St. Albert–Edmonton | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 98 % |
103. | Surrey-Sud–White Rock | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 96 % |
104. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 96 % |
105. | Kildonan–St. Paul | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 95 % |
106. | South Shore–St. Margarets | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 93 % |
107. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | ![]() |
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PCC probable | 92 % |
108. | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 89 % |
109. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 88 % |
110. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 88 % |
111. | Kitchener-Sud–Hespeler | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 88 % |
112. | Kenora | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 87 % |
113. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 86 % |
114. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 86 % |
115. | Kitchener–Conestoga | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 85 % |
116. | Saskatoon-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 85 % |
117. | Edmonton Mill Woods | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 84 % |
118. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 83 % |
119. | Richmond-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 81 % |
120. | Cloverdale–Langley City | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 80 % |
121. | Oshawa | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 79 % |
122. | Essex | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 76 % |
123. | Kanata–Carleton | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 75 % |
124. | King–Vaughan | ![]() |
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PCC enclin | 73 % |
125. | Cambridge | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 71 % |
126. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 69 % |
127. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
128. | North Island–Powell River | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 65 % |
129. | Sault Ste. Marie | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
130. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
131. | Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 60 % |
132. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 59 % |
133. | Sydney–Victoria | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
134. | Fredericton | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
135. | Niagara-Centre | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 53 % |
136. | St. Catharines | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
137. | London-Ouest | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 52 % |
138. | Bonavista–Burin–Trinity | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
139. | Edmonton-Centre | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 48 % |
140. | Long Range Mountains | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
141. | Delta | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
142. | Markham–Unionville | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
143. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
144. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
145. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
146. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC | 36 % |
147. | Malpeque | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
148. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 30 % |
149. | Newmarket–Aurora | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 30 % |
150. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 28 % |
151. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 27 % |
152. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 25 % |
153. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 25 % |
154. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 25 % |
155. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
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BQ enclin | 24 % |
156. | Sudbury | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 24 % |
157. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 22 % |
158. | Courtenay–Alberni | ![]() |
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NPD enclin | 22 % |
159. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 22 % |
160. | Cape Breton–Canso | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 21 % |
161. | Labrador | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 20 % |
162. | Nepean | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 20 % |
163. | York-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 19 % |
164. | Oakville | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 19 % |
165. | Burlington | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 16 % |
166. | Richmond Hill | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 15 % |
167. | Whitby | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 15 % |
168. | Oakville-Nord–Burlington | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 15 % |
169. | London-Centre-Nord | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 15 % |
170. | Nickel Belt | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 13 % |
171. | Beauport–Limoilou | ![]() |
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BQ enclin | 12 % |
172. | Avalon | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 12 % |
173. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 12 % |
174. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | ![]() |
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NPD enclin | 12 % |
175. | Egmont | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 11 % |
176. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
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NPD enclin | 11 % |
177. | Charlottetown | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 11 % |
178. | Saint John–Rothesay | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 11 % |
179. | Nova-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 10 % |
180. | Eglinton–Lawrence | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 9 % |
181. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 9 % |
182. | Pickering–Uxbridge | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 9 % |
183. | Windsor–Tecumseh | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 8 % |
184. | Vancouver Quadra | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 8 % |
185. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 7 % |
186. | Etobicoke-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 7 % |
187. | Waterloo | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 7 % |
188. | Cardigan | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 6 % |
189. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 6 % |
190. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 4 % |
191. | Kings–Hants | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 4 % |
192. | North Vancouver | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 4 % |
193. | Louis-Hébert | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 3 % |
194. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 3 % |
195. | Mississauga–Streetsville | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 3 % |
196. | Don Valley-Ouest | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 2 % |
197. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 2 % |
198. | Markham–Stouffville | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 2 % |
199. | Jonquière | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 2 % |
200. | Hamilton Mountain | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
201. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
202. | Guelph | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 2 % |
203. | Willowdale | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 2 % |
204. | Brampton-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 2 % |
205. | Orléans | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 1 % |
206. | Timmins–Baie James | ![]() |
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NPD probable | 1 % |