Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 26 mars 2023
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 34,1 % ± 4,2 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 118 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 140 [110-170] |
* L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire,
mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 26 mars 2023
Projection de sièges | 26 mars 2023
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris–Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Battle River–Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Yorkton–Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Red Deer–Lacombe | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Sentier Carlton–Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Red Deer–Mountain View | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Mégantic–L’Érable |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Peace River–Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Regina–Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Beauce | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Cariboo–Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Lévis–Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Banff–Airdrie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Richmond–Arthabaska | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Huron–Bruce | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Wellington–Halton Hills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Tobique–Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Portage–Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Haldimand–Norfolk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Perth–Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Langley–Aldergrove | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Barrie–Innisfil | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Simcoe–Grey | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Chilliwack–Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Dufferin–Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Sarnia–Lambton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Kelowna–Lake Country | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Nova-Ouest |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Carleton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Brandon–Souris | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | York–Simcoe | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Brantford–Brant | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Northumberland–Peterborough-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Regina–Wascana | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Durham | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Rivière Churchill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Cumberland–Colchester | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 91. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 92. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 93. | Kootenay–Columbia | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 94. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 95. | Niagara Falls | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 96. | Baie de Quinte | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 97. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 98. | Peterborough–Kawartha | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 99. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 100. | Calgary Forest Lawn | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 101. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 102. | St. Albert–Edmonton | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 103. | Surrey-Sud–White Rock | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 104. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 105. | Kildonan–St. Paul | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 106. | South Shore–St. Margarets | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 107. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 108. | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame |  |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 109. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 110. | Saskatoon–University | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 111. | Kitchener-Sud–Hespeler | |
 |
PCC enclin (gain) | 88 % |
| 112. | Kenora | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 113. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 114. | Regina–Lewvan | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 115. | Kitchener–Conestoga | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 85 % |
| 116. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 117. | Edmonton Mill Woods | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 118. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 119. | Richmond-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 81 % |
| 120. | Cloverdale–Langley City | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 80 % |
| 121. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 122. | Essex | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 123. | Kanata–Carleton | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 75 % |
| 124. | King–Vaughan | |
|
PCC enclin | 73 % |
| 125. | Cambridge | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 71 % |
| 126. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | |
 |
Pivot PCC/NPD | 69 % |
| 127. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 128. | North Island–Powell River | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 65 % |
| 129. | Sault Ste. Marie | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
| 130. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 131. | Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 60 % |
| 132. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 59 % |
| 133. | Sydney–Victoria | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 134. | Fredericton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 135. | Niagara-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 53 % |
| 136. | St. Catharines | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 137. | London-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 52 % |
| 138. | Bonavista–Burin–Trinity | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 139. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 48 % |
| 140. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 141. | Delta | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 142. | Markham–Unionville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 143. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 144. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 145. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 146. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC | 36 % |
| 147. | Malpeque |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 148. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PLC enclin | 30 % |
| 149. | Newmarket–Aurora | |
|
PLC enclin | 30 % |
| 150. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 28 % |
| 151. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 27 % |
| 152. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | |
|
PLC enclin | 25 % |
| 153. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | |
|
PLC enclin | 25 % |
| 154. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 25 % |
| 155. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
BQ enclin | 24 % |
| 156. | Sudbury | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 24 % |
| 157. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 158. | Courtenay–Alberni | |
|
NPD enclin | 22 % |
| 159. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 22 % |
| 160. | Cape Breton–Canso | |
|
PLC enclin | 21 % |
| 161. | Labrador | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 162. | Nepean | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 163. | York-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 19 % |
| 164. | Oakville | |
|
PLC enclin | 19 % |
| 165. | Burlington | |
|
PLC enclin | 16 % |
| 166. | Richmond Hill | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 167. | Whitby | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 168. | Oakville-Nord–Burlington | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 169. | London-Centre-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 15 % |
| 170. | Nickel Belt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 13 % |
| 171. | Beauport–Limoilou | |
|
BQ enclin | 12 % |
| 172. | Avalon | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 173. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 174. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | |
|
NPD enclin | 12 % |
| 175. | Egmont | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 176. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
NPD enclin | 11 % |
| 177. | Charlottetown | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 178. | Saint John–Rothesay | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 179. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 10 % |
| 180. | Eglinton–Lawrence | |
|
PLC probable | 9 % |
| 181. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | |
|
PLC probable | 9 % |
| 182. | Pickering–Uxbridge | |
|
PLC probable | 9 % |
| 183. | Windsor–Tecumseh | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 8 % |
| 184. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 185. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 186. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 187. | Waterloo | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 188. | Cardigan | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 189. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 190. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 191. | Kings–Hants | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 192. | North Vancouver | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 193. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PLC enclin | 3 % |
| 194. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 195. | Mississauga–Streetsville | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 196. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 197. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | |
|
PLC enclin | 2 % |
| 198. | Markham–Stouffville | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 199. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 200. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
| 201. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
| 202. | Guelph | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 203. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 204. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 205. | Orléans | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 206. | Timmins–Baie James | |
|
NPD probable | 1 % |