Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 6 juillet 2025
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2025 | 41.3% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 39,4 % ± 4,4 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 143 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 127 [85-169] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.
Projection du vote | 6 juillet 2025
Projection de sièges | 6 juillet 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2025 | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Portage—Lisgar |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Thornhill |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Brandon—Souris | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 42. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 43. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 44. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 45. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 46. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 47. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 48. | Essex | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 49. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 50. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 51. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 52. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 53. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 54. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 55. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 56. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 57. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 58. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 59. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 60. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 61. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 62. | Oxford | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 63. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 64. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 65. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 66. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 67. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 68. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 69. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 70. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 71. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 72. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 73. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 74. | Huron—Bruce | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 75. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 76. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 77. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 78. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 79. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 80. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 81. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 82. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 83. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 84. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 85. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 86. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 87. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 88. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 89. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 90. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 91. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 83 % |
| 92. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 93. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 94. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 95. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC enclin | 78 % |
| 96. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC enclin | 78 % |
| 97. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 78 % |
| 98. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 99. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 100. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 101. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 102. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 103. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 104. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 105. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 74 % |
| 106. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 73 % |
| 107. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 108. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 109. | Oshawa | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 110. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 111. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 67 % |
| 112. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 113. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % |
| 114. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 115. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 116. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 117. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 118. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 119. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 120. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 121. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 122. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 123. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 124. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 55 % |
| 125. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 126. | Cambridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 127. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 128. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 129. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 130. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 48 % |
| 131. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 45 % |
| 132. | Kelowna | |
 |
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 133. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 134. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 135. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 136. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 137. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 138. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 139. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 140. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 141. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 142. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 143. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 144. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 145. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 146. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 147. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/PVC | 31 % |
| 148. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 30 % |
| 149. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 29 % |
| 150. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 29 % |
| 151. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PLC enclin | 28 % |
| 152. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PLC enclin | 27 % |
| 153. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 27 % |
| 154. | Surrey Newton | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 155. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 156. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 157. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 24 % |
| 158. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 159. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 160. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 161. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 162. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 163. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 164. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 165. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC enclin | 16 % |
| 166. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 16 % |
| 167. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 168. | Carleton | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 169. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 170. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
 |
NPD enclin | 14 % |
| 171. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 172. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 173. | Delta | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 174. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 175. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 176. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 177. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 178. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 179. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 180. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 181. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 182. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 183. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 184. | Egmont |  |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 185. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 186. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 187. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 188. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 189. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 190. | Nunavut |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 3 % |
| 191. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 192. | Hamilton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 3 % |
| 193. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 194. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 195. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 196. | Jonquière | |
 |
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 197. | Sudbury | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 198. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 199. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 200. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 201. | Peterborough | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 202. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 203. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |