Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 1er septembre 2024
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 41,8 % ± 4,1 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 210 [179-233] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 1er septembre 2024
Projection de sièges | 1er septembre 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Calgary Shephard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Carleton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Kelowna | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 97. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 98. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 99. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 100. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 101. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 102. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 103. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 104. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 105. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 106. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 107. | Peterborough | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 108. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 109. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 110. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 111. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 112. | Essex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 113. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 114. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 115. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 116. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 117. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 118. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 119. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 120. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 121. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 122. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 123. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 124. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 125. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 126. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 127. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 128. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 129. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 130. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 131. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 132. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 133. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 134. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 135. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 136. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 137. | London-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 138. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 139. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 140. | Delta | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 141. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 142. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 143. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 144. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 145. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 146. | Cambridge | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 147. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 148. | Malpeque |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 149. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 150. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 151. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 152. | St. Catharines | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 153. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 154. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 155. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 156. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 157. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 158. | Kanata | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 159. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 160. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 161. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 162. | Burlington | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 163. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 164. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 165. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 166. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 167. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 168. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 169. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 170. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 171. | Sudbury | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 172. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 173. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 174. | Avalon | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 175. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 176. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 177. | Labrador | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 178. | Egmont | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 179. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 180. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 181. | Whitby | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 182. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 183. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 184. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 185. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 186. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin | 80 % |
| 187. | Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 188. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 189. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 190. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 191. | Cardigan | |
|
PCC enclin | 76 % |
| 192. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 193. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC enclin | 72 % |
| 194. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 67 % |
| 195. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
| 196. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 64 % |
| 197. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 64 % |
| 198. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 199. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 200. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 201. | London-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 58 % |
| 202. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 203. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 204. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 205. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 206. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 207. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 208. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 209. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 210. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 47 % |
| 211. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 212. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 213. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 214. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 215. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 216. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 42 % |
| 217. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 218. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 219. | Waterloo | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 220. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 221. | Guelph | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 222. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 223. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC enclin | 29 % |
| 224. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 225. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 226. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
NPD enclin | 21 % |
| 227. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 228. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 229. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 230. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 231. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 232. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 233. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 234. | Orléans | |
|
PLC enclin | 10 % |
| 235. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 10 % |
| 236. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
NPD probable | 8 % |
| 237. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 238. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
PVC probable | 7 % |
| 239. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 7 % |
| 240. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
NPD probable | 6 % |
| 241. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 242. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 243. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 244. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 4 % |
| 245. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
NPD probable | 4 % |
| 246. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
PVC probable | 4 % |
| 247. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 248. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 249. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 250. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 251. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 2 % |
| 252. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 253. | Cape Spear | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 254. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | |
|
NPD probable | 1 % |
| 255. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |