Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 23 avril 2025
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 38,0 % ± 4,4 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 123 [91-158] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 23 avril 2025
Projection de sièges | 23 avril 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ponoka—Didsbury |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Beauce | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Essex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | North Island—Powell River | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 58. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 59. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 60. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 61. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 62. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 63. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 64. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 65. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 66. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 67. | Provencher | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 68. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 69. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 70. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 71. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 72. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 73. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 74. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 75. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 76. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 77. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 78. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 79. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 80. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 81. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 82. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 83. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 84. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 85. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 86. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 87. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 88. | Carleton | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 89. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 90. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 91. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 92. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 93. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 94. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 95. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 96. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 97. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 98. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 99. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 100. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 101. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 102. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 103. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 104. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 105. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 106. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
 |
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 107. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 108. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC enclin | 71 % |
| 109. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 69 % |
| 110. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 111. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 112. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 113. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 114. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 115. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
Pivot PCC/PVC | 63 % |
| 116. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 61 % |
| 117. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 118. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 119. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 57 % |
| 120. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 121. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 122. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 123. | Kelowna | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 124. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 125. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 126. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
 |
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 127. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 128. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 129. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 130. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 131. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 132. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 133. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 134. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 135. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 136. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 137. | Peterborough | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 138. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 33 % |
| 139. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 140. | York-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 30 % |
| 141. | Jonquière | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 29 % |
| 142. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 28 % |
| 143. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 27 % |
| 144. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 145. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 146. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 147. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 148. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 149. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 150. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 21 % |
| 151. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 152. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PLC enclin | 18 % |
| 153. | Burnaby Central | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 154. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC enclin | 15 % |
| 155. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ enclin | 13 % |
| 156. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 13 % |
| 157. | Delta | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 158. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 159. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 12 % |
| 160. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 161. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | |
|
BQ probable | 9 % |
| 162. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 8 % |
| 163. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 7 % |
| 164. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 165. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 166. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
PLC enclin | 6 % |
| 167. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 168. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 169. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 170. | Drummond | |
|
BQ probable | 5 % |
| 171. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 172. | Malpeque |  |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 173. | Edmonton Strathcona | |
|
NPD probable | 5 % |
| 174. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 175. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 176. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 177. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 178. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 179. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 180. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 181. | Burlington | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 182. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 183. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 184. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 185. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 186. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 1 % |
| 187. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 188. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 1 % |
| 189. | Cambridge | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |