logo
Canada

Parti conservateur du Canada



Dernière mise à jour: 26 mars 2023

ChefPierre Poilievre
Proportion du suffrage national en 202133.7%
Projection de vote actuelle34,1 % ± 4,2 %
Nombre actuel de députés-es118
Projection de sièges actuelle140 [110-170]

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 26 mars 2023 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majorité : 170 sièges Efficacité du vote | PCC Qc125 ©2023 7,3 siège/% 140 [110-170] 34% ± 4% 2019 2021 * L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.

Projection du vote | 26 mars 2023

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30,0% 2021 33,7% 34,1% ± 4,2% Max. 38,3% Probabilités % PCC

Projection de sièges | 26 mars 2023

72 77 82 87 92 97 102 107 112 117 122 127 132 137 142 147 152 157 162 167 172 177 182 187 192 197 202 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 110 2021 119 sièges 140 Max. 170 Majorité 170 sièges Probabilités % PCC

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada



Rang Circonscription Province Parti actuel Dernière projection Probabilité de victoire
1. Souris–Moose Mountain PCC solide > 99 %
2. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake PCC solide > 99 %
3. Battle River–Crowfoot PCC solide > 99 %
4. Bow River PCC solide > 99 %
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands PCC solide > 99 %
6. Lakeland PCC solide > 99 %
7. Yorkton–Melville PCC solide > 99 %
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie PCC solide > 99 %
9. Red Deer–Lacombe PCC solide > 99 %
10. Foothills PCC solide > 99 %
11. Yellowhead PCC solide > 99 %
12. Sentier Carlton–Eagle Creek PCC solide > 99 %
13. Red Deer–Mountain View PCC solide > 99 %
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner PCC solide > 99 %
15. Prince Albert PCC solide > 99 %
16. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies PCC solide > 99 %
17. Mégantic–L’Érable PCC solide > 99 %
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster PCC solide > 99 %
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland PCC solide > 99 %
20. Peace River–Westlock PCC solide > 99 %
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle PCC solide > 99 %
22. Calgary Shepard PCC solide > 99 %
23. Calgary Midnapore PCC solide > 99 %
24. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry PCC solide > 99 %
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan PCC solide > 99 %
26. Beauce PCC solide > 99 %
27. Calgary Signal Hill PCC solide > 99 %
28. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan PCC solide > 99 %
29. Cariboo–Prince George PCC solide > 99 %
30. Lévis–Lotbinière PCC solide > 99 %
31. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier PCC solide > 99 %
32. Calgary Heritage PCC solide > 99 %
33. Lethbridge PCC solide > 99 %
34. Banff–Airdrie PCC solide > 99 %
35. Louis-Saint-Laurent PCC solide > 99 %
36. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis PCC solide > 99 %
37. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin PCC solide > 99 %
38. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup PCC solide > 99 %
39. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa PCC solide > 99 %
40. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock PCC solide > 99 %
41. Richmond–Arthabaska PCC solide > 99 %
42. Huron–Bruce PCC solide > 99 %
43. Wellington–Halton Hills PCC solide > 99 %
44. Calgary Nose Hill PCC solide > 99 %
45. Tobique–Mactaquac PCC solide > 99 %
46. Portage–Lisgar PCC solide > 99 %
47. Abbotsford PCC solide > 99 %
48. Elgin–Middlesex–London PCC solide > 99 %
49. Haldimand–Norfolk PCC solide > 99 %
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound PCC solide > 99 %
51. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes PCC solide > 99 %
52. Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest PCC solide > 99 %
53. Perth–Wellington PCC solide > 99 %
54. Calgary Rocky Ridge PCC solide > 99 %
55. Langley–Aldergrove PCC solide > 99 %
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap PCC solide > 99 %
57. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke PCC solide > 99 %
58. Barrie–Innisfil PCC solide > 99 %
59. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex PCC solide > 99 %
60. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola PCC solide > 99 %
61. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston PCC solide > 99 %
62. Fundy Royal PCC solide > 99 %
63. Oxford PCC solide > 99 %
64. Simcoe–Grey PCC solide > 99 %
65. Parry Sound–Muskoka PCC solide > 99 %
66. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon PCC solide > 99 %
67. Chilliwack–Hope PCC solide > 99 %
68. Dufferin–Caledon PCC solide > 99 %
69. Sarnia–Lambton PCC solide > 99 %
70. Kelowna–Lake Country PCC solide > 99 %
71. Provencher PCC solide > 99 %
72. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman PCC solide > 99 %
73. Niagara-Ouest PCC solide > 99 %
74. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte PCC solide > 99 %
75. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles PCC solide > 99 %
76. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo PCC solide > 99 %
77. Chatham-Kent–Leamington PCC solide > 99 %
78. Nova-Ouest PCC solide > 99 %
79. Carleton PCC solide > 99 %
80. Simcoe-Nord PCC solide > 99 %
81. Brandon–Souris PCC solide > 99 %
82. York–Simcoe PCC solide > 99 %
83. Brantford–Brant PCC solide > 99 %
84. Northumberland–Peterborough-Sud PCC solide > 99 %
85. Regina–Wascana PCC solide > 99 %
86. Hastings–Lennox and Addington PCC solide > 99 %
87. Durham PCC solide > 99 %
88. Desnethé–Missinippi–Rivière Churchill PCC solide > 99 %
89. Cumberland–Colchester PCC solide > 99 %
90. Edmonton-Ouest PCC probable 99 %
91. Thornhill PCC probable 99 %
92. Edmonton Riverbend PCC probable 99 %
93. Kootenay–Columbia PCC probable 99 %
94. Calgary-Centre PCC probable 99 %
95. Niagara Falls PCC probable 99 %
96. Baie de Quinte PCC probable 99 %
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook PCC probable 99 %
98. Peterborough–Kawartha PCC probable 99 %
99. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge PCC probable 98 %
100. Calgary Forest Lawn PCC probable 98 %
101. Calgary Confederation PCC probable 98 %
102. St. Albert–Edmonton PCC probable 98 %
103. Surrey-Sud–White Rock PCC probable 96 %
104. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord PCC probable 96 %
105. Kildonan–St. Paul PCC probable 95 %
106. South Shore–St. Margarets PCC probable 93 %
107. Miramichi–Grand Lake PCC probable 92 %
108. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame PCC enclin 89 %
109. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley PCC enclin 88 %
110. Saskatoon–University PCC enclin 88 %
111. Kitchener-Sud–Hespeler PCC enclin (gain) 88 %
112. Kenora PCC enclin 87 %
113. Saskatoon–Grasswood PCC enclin 86 %
114. Regina–Lewvan PCC enclin 86 %
115. Kitchener–Conestoga PCC enclin (gain) 85 %
116. Saskatoon-Ouest PCC enclin 85 %
117. Edmonton Mill Woods PCC enclin 84 %
118. Edmonton Manning PCC enclin 83 %
119. Richmond-Centre PCC enclin (gain) 81 %
120. Cloverdale–Langley City PCC enclin (gain) 80 %
121. Oshawa PCC enclin 79 %
122. Essex PCC enclin 76 %
123. Kanata–Carleton PCC enclin (gain) 75 %
124. King–Vaughan PCC enclin 73 %
125. Cambridge PCC enclin (gain) 71 %
126. Port Moody–Coquitlam Pivot PCC/NPD 69 %
127. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Pivot PLC/PCC 66 %
128. North Island–Powell River Pivot PCC/NPD 65 %
129. Sault Ste. Marie Pivot PLC/PCC 65 %
130. Nipissing–Timiskaming Pivot PLC/PCC 61 %
131. Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest Pivot PCC/NPD 60 %
132. Skeena–Bulkley Valley Pivot PCC/NPD 59 %
133. Sydney–Victoria Pivot PLC/PCC 56 %
134. Fredericton Pivot PLC/PCC 53 %
135. Niagara-Centre Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 53 %
136. St. Catharines Pivot PLC/PCC 52 %
137. London-Ouest Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 52 %
138. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Pivot PLC/PCC 51 %
139. Edmonton-Centre Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 48 %
140. Long Range Mountains Pivot PLC/PCC 47 %
141. Delta Pivot PLC/PCC 43 %
142. Markham–Unionville Pivot PLC/PCC 41 %
143. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Pivot PLC/PCC 39 %
144. Steveston–Richmond-Est Pivot PLC/PCC 39 %
145. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Pivot PLC/PCC 38 %
146. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC 36 %
147. Malpeque Pivot PLC/PCC 34 %
148. Calgary Skyview PLC enclin 30 %
149. Newmarket–Aurora PLC enclin 30 %
150. Yukon Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 28 %
151. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 27 %
152. Vaughan–Woodbridge PLC enclin 25 %
153. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill PLC enclin 25 %
154. Vancouver Granville Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 25 %
155. Trois-Rivières BQ enclin 24 %
156. Sudbury Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 24 %
157. Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas PLC enclin 22 %
158. Courtenay–Alberni NPD enclin 22 %
159. Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 22 %
160. Cape Breton–Canso PLC enclin 21 %
161. Labrador PLC enclin 20 %
162. Nepean PLC enclin 20 %
163. York-Centre PLC enclin 19 %
164. Oakville PLC enclin 19 %
165. Burlington PLC enclin 16 %
166. Richmond Hill PLC enclin 15 %
167. Whitby PLC enclin 15 %
168. Oakville-Nord–Burlington PLC enclin 15 %
169. London-Centre-Nord Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 15 %
170. Nickel Belt Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD 13 %
171. Beauport–Limoilou BQ enclin 12 %
172. Avalon PLC enclin 12 %
173. Fleetwood–Port Kells PLC enclin 12 %
174. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NPD enclin 12 %
175. Egmont PLC enclin 11 %
176. Edmonton Griesbach NPD enclin 11 %
177. Charlottetown PLC enclin 11 %
178. Saint John–Rothesay PLC enclin 11 %
179. Nova-Centre PLC enclin 10 %
180. Eglinton–Lawrence PLC probable 9 %
181. Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean PLC probable 9 %
182. Pickering–Uxbridge PLC probable 9 %
183. Windsor–Tecumseh Pivot PLC/NPD 8 %
184. Vancouver Quadra PLC probable 8 %
185. Mississauga–Lakeshore PLC probable 7 %
186. Etobicoke-Centre PLC probable 7 %
187. Waterloo PLC probable 7 %
188. Cardigan PLC probable 6 %
189. Burnaby-Nord–Seymour PLC probable 6 %
190. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ probable 4 %
191. Kings–Hants PLC probable 4 %
192. North Vancouver PLC probable 4 %
193. Louis-Hébert PLC enclin 3 %
194. Etobicoke–Lakeshore PLC probable 3 %
195. Mississauga–Streetsville PLC probable 3 %
196. Don Valley-Ouest PLC probable 2 %
197. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook PLC enclin 2 %
198. Markham–Stouffville PLC probable 2 %
199. Jonquière BQ probable 2 %
200. Hamilton Mountain Pivot PLC/NPD 2 %
201. Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord Pivot PLC/NPD 2 %
202. Guelph PLC probable 2 %
203. Willowdale PLC probable 2 %
204. Brampton-Centre PLC probable 2 %
205. Orléans PLC probable 1 %
206. Timmins–Baie James NPD probable 1 %
Rang Circonscription Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain PCC solide
2. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake PCC solide
3. Battle River–Crowfoot PCC solide
4. Bow River PCC solide
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands PCC solide
6. Lakeland PCC solide
7. Yorkton–Melville PCC solide
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie PCC solide
9. Red Deer–Lacombe PCC solide
10. Foothills PCC solide
11. Yellowhead PCC solide
12. Sentier Carlton–Eagle Creek PCC solide
13. Red Deer–Mountain View PCC solide
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner PCC solide
15. Prince Albert PCC solide
16. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies PCC solide
17. Mégantic–L’Érable PCC solide
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster PCC solide
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland PCC solide
20. Peace River–Westlock PCC solide
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle PCC solide
22. Calgary Shepard PCC solide
23. Calgary Midnapore PCC solide
24. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry PCC solide
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan PCC solide
26. Beauce PCC solide
27. Calgary Signal Hill PCC solide
28. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan PCC solide
29. Cariboo–Prince George PCC solide
30. Lévis–Lotbinière PCC solide
31. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier PCC solide
32. Calgary Heritage PCC solide
33. Lethbridge PCC solide
34. Banff–Airdrie PCC solide
35. Louis-Saint-Laurent PCC solide
36. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis PCC solide
37. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin PCC solide
38. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup PCC solide
39. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa PCC solide
40. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock PCC solide
41. Richmond–Arthabaska PCC solide
42. Huron–Bruce PCC solide
43. Wellington–Halton Hills PCC solide
44. Calgary Nose Hill PCC solide
45. Tobique–Mactaquac PCC solide
46. Portage–Lisgar PCC solide
47. Abbotsford PCC solide
48. Elgin–Middlesex–London PCC solide
49. Haldimand–Norfolk PCC solide
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound PCC solide
51. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes PCC solide
52. Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest PCC solide
53. Perth–Wellington PCC solide
54. Calgary Rocky Ridge PCC solide
55. Langley–Aldergrove PCC solide
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap PCC solide
57. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke PCC solide
58. Barrie–Innisfil PCC solide
59. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex PCC solide
60. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola PCC solide
61. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston PCC solide
62. Fundy Royal PCC solide
63. Oxford PCC solide
64. Simcoe–Grey PCC solide
65. Parry Sound–Muskoka PCC solide
66. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon PCC solide
67. Chilliwack–Hope PCC solide
68. Dufferin–Caledon PCC solide
69. Sarnia–Lambton PCC solide
70. Kelowna–Lake Country PCC solide
71. Provencher PCC solide
72. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman PCC solide
73. Niagara-Ouest PCC solide
74. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte PCC solide
75. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles PCC solide
76. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo PCC solide
77. Chatham-Kent–Leamington PCC solide
78. Nova-Ouest PCC solide
79. Carleton PCC solide
80. Simcoe-Nord PCC solide
81. Brandon–Souris PCC solide
82. York–Simcoe PCC solide
83. Brantford–Brant PCC solide
84. Northumberland–Peterborough-Sud PCC solide
85. Regina–Wascana PCC solide
86. Hastings–Lennox and Addington PCC solide
87. Durham PCC solide
88. Desnethé–Missinippi–Rivière Churchill PCC solide
89. Cumberland–Colchester PCC solide
90. Edmonton-Ouest PCC probable
91. Thornhill PCC probable
92. Edmonton Riverbend PCC probable
93. Kootenay–Columbia PCC probable
94. Calgary-Centre PCC probable
95. Niagara Falls PCC probable
96. Baie de Quinte PCC probable
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook PCC probable
98. Peterborough–Kawartha PCC probable
99. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge PCC probable
100. Calgary Forest Lawn PCC probable
101. Calgary Confederation PCC probable
102. St. Albert–Edmonton PCC probable
103. Surrey-Sud–White Rock PCC probable
104. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord PCC probable
105. Kildonan–St. Paul PCC probable
106. South Shore–St. Margarets PCC probable
107. Miramichi–Grand Lake PCC probable
108. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame PCC enclin
109. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley PCC enclin
110. Saskatoon–University PCC enclin
111. Kitchener-Sud–Hespeler PCC enclin (gain)
112. Kenora PCC enclin
113. Saskatoon–Grasswood PCC enclin
114. Regina–Lewvan PCC enclin
115. Kitchener–Conestoga PCC enclin (gain)
116. Saskatoon-Ouest PCC enclin
117. Edmonton Mill Woods PCC enclin
118. Edmonton Manning PCC enclin
119. Richmond-Centre PCC enclin (gain)
120. Cloverdale–Langley City PCC enclin (gain)
121. Oshawa PCC enclin
122. Essex PCC enclin
123. Kanata–Carleton PCC enclin (gain)
124. King–Vaughan PCC enclin
125. Cambridge PCC enclin (gain)
126. Port Moody–Coquitlam Pivot PCC/NPD
127. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Pivot PLC/PCC
128. North Island–Powell River Pivot PCC/NPD
129. Sault Ste. Marie Pivot PLC/PCC
130. Nipissing–Timiskaming Pivot PLC/PCC
131. Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest Pivot PCC/NPD
132. Skeena–Bulkley Valley Pivot PCC/NPD
133. Sydney–Victoria Pivot PLC/PCC
134. Fredericton Pivot PLC/PCC
135. Niagara-Centre Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
136. St. Catharines Pivot PLC/PCC
137. London-Ouest Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
138. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Pivot PLC/PCC
139. Edmonton-Centre Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
140. Long Range Mountains Pivot PLC/PCC
141. Delta Pivot PLC/PCC
142. Markham–Unionville Pivot PLC/PCC
143. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Pivot PLC/PCC
144. Steveston–Richmond-Est Pivot PLC/PCC
145. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Pivot PLC/PCC
146. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC
147. Malpeque Pivot PLC/PCC
148. Calgary Skyview PLC enclin
149. Newmarket–Aurora PLC enclin
150. Yukon Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
151. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
152. Vaughan–Woodbridge PLC enclin
153. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill PLC enclin
154. Vancouver Granville Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
155. Trois-Rivières BQ enclin
156. Sudbury Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
157. Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas PLC enclin
158. Courtenay–Alberni NPD enclin
159. Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
160. Cape Breton–Canso PLC enclin
161. Labrador PLC enclin
162. Nepean PLC enclin
163. York-Centre PLC enclin
164. Oakville PLC enclin
165. Burlington PLC enclin
166. Richmond Hill PLC enclin
167. Whitby PLC enclin
168. Oakville-Nord–Burlington PLC enclin
169. London-Centre-Nord Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
170. Nickel Belt Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD
171. Beauport–Limoilou BQ enclin
172. Avalon PLC enclin
173. Fleetwood–Port Kells PLC enclin
174. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NPD enclin
175. Egmont PLC enclin
176. Edmonton Griesbach NPD enclin
177. Charlottetown PLC enclin
178. Saint John–Rothesay PLC enclin
179. Nova-Centre PLC enclin
180. Eglinton–Lawrence PLC probable
181. Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean PLC probable
182. Pickering–Uxbridge PLC probable
183. Windsor–Tecumseh Pivot PLC/NPD
184. Vancouver Quadra PLC probable
185. Mississauga–Lakeshore PLC probable
186. Etobicoke-Centre PLC probable
187. Waterloo PLC probable
188. Cardigan PLC probable
189. Burnaby-Nord–Seymour PLC probable
190. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ probable
191. Kings–Hants PLC probable
192. North Vancouver PLC probable
193. Louis-Hébert PLC enclin
194. Etobicoke–Lakeshore PLC probable
195. Mississauga–Streetsville PLC probable
196. Don Valley-Ouest PLC probable
197. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook PLC enclin
198. Markham–Stouffville PLC probable
199. Jonquière BQ probable
200. Hamilton Mountain Pivot PLC/NPD
201. Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord Pivot PLC/NPD
202. Guelph PLC probable
203. Willowdale PLC probable
204. Brampton-Centre PLC probable
205. Orléans PLC probable
206. Timmins–Baie James NPD probable