Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 1er décembre 2024
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 43,5 % ± 4,0 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 229 [200-250] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 1er décembre 2024
Projection de sièges | 1er décembre 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Calgary Shepard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Carleton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Kelowna | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 97. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 98. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 99. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 100. | Essex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 101. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 102. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 103. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 104. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 105. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 106. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 107. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 108. | Peterborough | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 109. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 110. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 111. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 112. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 113. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 114. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 115. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 116. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 117. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 118. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 119. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 120. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 121. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 122. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 123. | London-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 124. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 125. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 126. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 127. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 128. | St. Catharines | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 129. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 130. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 131. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 132. | Cambridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 133. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 134. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 135. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 136. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 137. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 138. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 139. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 140. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 141. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 142. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 143. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 144. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 145. | Kanata | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 146. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 147. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 148. | Delta | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 149. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 150. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 151. | Burlington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 152. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 153. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 154. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 155. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 156. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 157. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 158. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 159. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 160. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 161. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 162. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 163. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 164. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 165. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 166. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 167. | Whitby | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 168. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 169. | Malpeque |  |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 170. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 171. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 172. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 173. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 174. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 175. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 176. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 177. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 178. | Sudbury | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 179. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 180. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 181. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 182. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC probable | 95 % |
| 183. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 184. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 185. | Avalon | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 186. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 187. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 188. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 189. | Egmont | |
|
PCC probable | 92 % |
| 190. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 191. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 192. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 193. | Labrador | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 194. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 90 % |
| 195. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 196. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 197. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 198. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 199. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 200. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 201. | Waterloo | |
|
PCC enclin | 85 % |
| 202. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 203. | Cardigan | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 204. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 205. | Guelph | |
|
PCC enclin | 81 % |
| 206. | London-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 80 % |
| 207. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 208. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 209. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 210. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 211. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
PCC enclin | 75 % |
| 212. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 73 % |
| 213. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
PCC enclin | 72 % |
| 214. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PCC enclin | 70 % |
| 215. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 216. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 217. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 218. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 62 % |
| 219. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 62 % |
| 220. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 60 % |
| 221. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 60 % |
| 222. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 223. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 224. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 225. | Orléans | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 226. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 227. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 53 % |
| 228. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 52 % |
| 229. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 230. | Brampton-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 231. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 232. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 233. | Mont-Royal | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 234. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 44 % |
| 235. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 236. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 40 % |
| 237. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 238. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 239. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 31 % |
| 240. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 30 % |
| 241. | Laval—Les Îles | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 29 % |
| 242. | Ajax | |
|
PLC enclin | 28 % |
| 243. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 27 % |
| 244. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 245. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 246. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 19 % |
| 247. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC enclin | 19 % |
| 248. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
PVC enclin | 16 % |
| 249. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 250. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
NPD enclin | 14 % |
| 251. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC enclin | 14 % |
| 252. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | |
|
NPD enclin | 13 % |
| 253. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
NPD enclin | 12 % |
| 254. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
PVC enclin | 11 % |
| 255. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 256. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 8 % |
| 257. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC enclin | 7 % |
| 258. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 259. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC probable | 5 % |
| 260. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 4 % |
| 261. | Surrey Newton | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 262. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 263. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 264. | Cape Spear | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 265. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
NPD probable | 2 % |
| 266. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 267. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |