Parti conservateur du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 17 novembre 2024
| Chef | Pierre Poilievre |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 33.7% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 41,9 % ± 4,0 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 214 [183-239] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 17 novembre 2024
Projection de sièges | 17 novembre 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Bow River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Grande Prairie | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Foothills | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Lakeland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Red Deer | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Prince Albert | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Riding Mountain | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Beauce |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Calgary Shephard | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Lethbridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Parkland | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Carleton | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Yellowhead | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Oxford | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Provencher | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Kelowna | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 97. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 98. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 99. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 100. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 101. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 102. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 103. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 104. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 105. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 106. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 107. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 108. | Peterborough | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 109. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 110. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 111. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 112. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 113. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 114. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 115. | Essex | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 116. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 117. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 118. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 119. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
 |
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 120. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 121. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 122. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 123. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 124. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 125. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 126. | London-Ouest | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 127. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 128. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 129. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PCC solide | > 99 % |
| 130. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 131. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 132. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 133. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 134. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 135. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 136. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 137. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 138. | Cambridge | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 139. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 140. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 141. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 142. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
PCC probable | > 99 % |
| 143. | St. Catharines | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 144. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 145. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 146. | Delta | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 147. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 148. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 149. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 150. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 151. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 152. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 153. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 154. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 155. | Kanata | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 156. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 99 % |
| 157. | Burlington | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 158. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 159. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 160. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 98 % |
| 161. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 162. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 163. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 164. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 165. | Malpeque |  |
|
PCC probable | 97 % |
| 166. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 167. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 168. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 96 % |
| 169. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 170. | Whitby | |
|
PCC probable | 94 % |
| 171. | Sudbury | |
|
PCC probable | 93 % |
| 172. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 91 % |
| 173. | Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 90 % |
| 174. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
PCC enclin | 90 % |
| 175. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC enclin | 90 % |
| 176. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 177. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC enclin | 89 % |
| 178. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 179. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC enclin | 88 % |
| 180. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC enclin | 87 % |
| 181. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 182. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 183. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 86 % |
| 184. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 185. | Labrador | |
|
PCC enclin | 84 % |
| 186. | Egmont | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 187. | Avalon | |
|
PCC enclin | 82 % |
| 188. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC enclin | 80 % |
| 189. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC enclin | 80 % |
| 190. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 191. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin | 79 % |
| 192. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC enclin | 77 % |
| 193. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC enclin | 72 % |
| 194. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 70 % |
| 195. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 196. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 197. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 66 % |
| 198. | London-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 66 % |
| 199. | Cardigan | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 200. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 63 % |
| 201. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 202. | Elmwood—Transcona | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 59 % |
| 203. | Trois-Rivières | |
 |
Pivot PCC/BQ | 59 % |
| 204. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 59 % |
| 205. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 206. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 58 % |
| 207. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 208. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 209. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 56 % |
| 210. | Waterloo | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 211. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 53 % |
| 212. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 213. | Guelph | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 214. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 215. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 216. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 46 % |
| 217. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 46 % |
| 218. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 219. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 44 % |
| 220. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 42 % |
| 221. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 222. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 223. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 224. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 225. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 226. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 227. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 30 % |
| 228. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 28 % |
| 229. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
NPD enclin | 26 % |
| 230. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 231. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 26 % |
| 232. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 233. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC enclin | 23 % |
| 234. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 22 % |
| 235. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 236. | Orléans | |
|
PLC enclin | 20 % |
| 237. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 18 % |
| 238. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC enclin | 17 % |
| 239. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
PVC enclin | 13 % |
| 240. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
NPD enclin | 11 % |
| 241. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 11 % |
| 242. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 243. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 10 % |
| 244. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 9 % |
| 245. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 246. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
NPD probable | 7 % |
| 247. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | |
|
NPD probable | 7 % |
| 248. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 249. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 250. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC probable | 7 % |
| 251. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 6 % |
| 252. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 6 % |
| 253. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 254. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
PVC probable | 4 % |
| 255. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 256. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 257. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 2 % |
| 258. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |