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Compton—Stanstead


Député(e) : Marianne Dandurand (PLC)


Dernière mise à jour : 6 juillet 2025
PLC solide

Historique récent | Compton—Stanstead


2019 2021 2025 Proj. PLC 49% ± 7% 37,1% 36,7% 45,6% BQ 25% ± 6% 31,7% 30,5% 26,4% PCC 20% ± 5% 14,5% 17,4% 21,8% NPD 4% ± 3% 9,9% 7,5% 3,2% PVC 2% ± 2% 5,2% 2,8% 1,8% PPC 1% ± 2% 1,0% 3,8% 1,2%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Compton—Stanstead

Compton—Stanstead 49% ± 7%▲ PLC 25% ± 6%▼ BQ 20% ± 5% PCC 4% ± 3%▲ NPD PLC 2025 45,6% Projection du vote | 6 juillet 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Compton—Stanstead >99% PLC <1% BQ <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 6 juillet 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Compton—Stanstead

PLC 49% ± 7% PCC 20% ± 5% NPD 4% ± 3% BQ 25% ± 6% Projection du vote % | Compton—Stanstead 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 6 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 36% PCC 24% PLC 23% NPD 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 36% PCC 24% PLC 23% NPD 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 35% PCC 24% PLC 24% NPD 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 35% PLC 25% PCC 23% NPD 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 33% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 32% PLC 31% PCC 23% NPD 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PLC 32% BQ 31% PCC 22% NPD 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 PLC 35% BQ 29% PCC 22% NPD 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 PLC 36% BQ 28% PCC 22% NPD 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PLC 37% BQ 27% PCC 21% NPD 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 39% BQ 26% PCC 21% NPD 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 40% BQ 26% PCC 21% NPD 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 40% BQ 26% PCC 21% NPD 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 40% BQ 26% PCC 21% NPD 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 40% BQ 26% PCC 20% NPD 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 40% BQ 27% PCC 20% NPD 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 42% BQ 26% PCC 19% NPD 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 43% BQ 25% PCC 19% NPD 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 43% BQ 25% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 44% BQ 24% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 44% BQ 24% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 45% BQ 23% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 45% BQ 23% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 47% BQ 21% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 48% PCC 21% BQ 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 50% BQ 20% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 50% BQ 20% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 51% BQ 20% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 50% PCC 20% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC 50% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 49% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 48% PCC 21% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 48% PCC 21% BQ 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 48% PCC 22% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 47% PCC 23% BQ 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 46% PCC 23% BQ 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 46% PCC 23% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 46% PCC 23% BQ 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 47% PCC 23% BQ 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 46% BQ 26% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 46% BQ 26% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 46% BQ 26% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 46% BQ 26% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 46% BQ 26% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 46% BQ 27% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 46% BQ 27% PCC 21% NPD 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 46% BQ 27% PCC 21% NPD 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 48% BQ 26% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 PLC 49% BQ 25% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-07-06 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Compton—Stanstead

PLC >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD 6 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 PCC <1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 PCC 1% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 PCC 1% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 PLC 2% PCC 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 PLC 19% PCC 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 PLC 39% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PLC 62% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 PLC 88% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 PLC 93% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PLC 97% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 99% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 PLC >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-06 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC