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Canada


Rivière-du-Nord


Député(e) : Rheal Fortin (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 27 juillet 2025
BQ enclin

Historique récent | Rivière-du-Nord


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 42% ± 7% 52,9% 51,6% 43,8% PLC 35% ± 7% 21,9% 22,5% 31,6% PCC 19% ± 5% 11,9% 12,0% 21,0% NPD 4% ± 3% 7,0% 6,9% 3,5% PPC 0% ± 0% 0,7% 3,8% 0,0% PVC 0% ± 0% 5,1% 0,3% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Rivière-du-Nord

Rivière-du-Nord 42% ± 7% BQ 35% ± 7%▼ PLC 19% ± 5% PCC 4% ± 3% NPD BQ 2025 43,8% Projection du vote | 27 juillet 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Rivière-du-Nord 89%▲ BQ 11%▼ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 27 juillet 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Rivière-du-Nord

PLC 35% ± 7% PCC 19% ± 5% NPD 4% ± 3% BQ 42% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Rivière-du-Nord 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 27 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 53% PCC 19% PLC 14% NPD 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 53% PCC 20% PLC 14% NPD 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 52% PCC 20% PLC 14% NPD 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 52% PCC 19% PLC 15% NPD 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 50% PCC 19% PLC 18% NPD 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 49% PLC 19% PCC 19% NPD 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 47% PLC 21% PCC 19% NPD 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 45% PLC 23% PCC 19% NPD 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 45% PLC 23% PCC 19% NPD 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 44% PLC 25% PCC 19% NPD 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% NPD 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 17% NPD 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 17% NPD 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 41% PLC 30% PCC 18% NPD 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 40% PLC 31% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 39% PLC 31% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 39% PLC 32% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 39% PLC 32% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 39% PLC 32% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 38% PLC 33% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 38% PLC 34% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 38% PLC 33% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 39% PLC 33% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 39% PLC 34% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 39% PLC 34% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 39% PLC 34% PCC 17% NPD 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 40% PLC 34% PCC 17% NPD 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 43% PLC 35% PCC 18% NPD 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 43% PLC 34% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 43% PLC 34% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 43% PLC 34% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 44% PLC 33% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 44% PLC 33% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 44% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 44% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 44% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 45% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 43% PLC 34% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-07-27 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Rivière-du-Nord

PLC 11% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 89% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 27 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 91% PLC 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 83% PLC 17% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 78% PLC 22% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 82% PLC 18% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 83% PLC 17% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 81% PLC 19% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 83% PLC 17% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 87% PLC 13% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 84% PLC 16% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 86% PLC 14% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 86% PLC 14% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 87% PLC 13% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 91% PLC 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 94% PLC 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 94% PLC 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 87% PLC 13% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-27 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC