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Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères


Député(e) : Xavier Barsalou-Duval (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ enclin

Historique récent | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 45% ± 7% 51,0% 54,3% 46,1% PLC 41% ± 8% 28,5% 25,9% 38,8% PCC 11% ± 5% 8,1% 8,8% 11,8% NPD 3% ± 2% 6,9% 7,7% 2,5% PPC 1% ± 1% 0,6% 2,0% 0,8%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères

Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 45% ± 7%▼ BQ 41% ± 8%▲ PLC 11% ± 5% PCC 3% ± 2% NPD BQ 2025 46,1% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 75%▼ BQ 25%▲ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères

PLC 41% ± 8% PCC 11% ± 5% BQ 45% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 55% PLC 16% PCC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 54% PCC 17% PLC 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 53% PLC 17% PCC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 53% PLC 17% PCC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 50% PLC 20% PCC 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 50% PLC 22% PCC 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 48% PLC 24% PCC 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 46% PLC 26% PCC 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 45% PLC 27% PCC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 44% PLC 29% PCC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 43% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 42% PLC 34% PCC 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 42% PLC 34% PCC 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 41% PLC 35% PCC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 41% PLC 36% PCC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 40% PLC 36% PCC 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 39% PLC 37% PCC 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 40% PLC 37% PCC 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 39% PLC 37% PCC 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 38% PLC 38% PCC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 39% BQ 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 39% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 39% BQ 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 39% BQ 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 39% BQ 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 39% BQ 39% PCC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 39% PLC 39% PCC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 40% BQ 39% PCC 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 39% BQ 39% PCC 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 39% PLC 39% PCC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 39% PLC 39% PCC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 40% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 39% PLC 39% PCC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 40% PLC 39% PCC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 40% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 40% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 41% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 41% PLC 38% PCC 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 15% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 16% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 16% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 42% PLC 35% PCC 16% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 42% PLC 36% PCC 16% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 12% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 47% PLC 39% PCC 11% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 46% PLC 39% PCC 11% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 45% PLC 41% PCC 11% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères

PLC 25% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 75% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 80% PLC 20% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 72% PLC 28% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 67% PLC 33% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 69% PLC 31% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 61% PLC 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 52% PLC 48% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 57% BQ 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 51% PLC 49% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 51% BQ 49% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PLC 54% BQ 46% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PLC 57% BQ 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PLC 53% BQ 47% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 54% PLC 46% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 52% BQ 48% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 50% BQ 50% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 52% PLC 48% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 53% PLC 47% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 58% PLC 42% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 53% PLC 47% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 57% PLC 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 62% PLC 38% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 66% PLC 34% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 69% PLC 31% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 70% PLC 30% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 79% PLC 21% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 84% PLC 16% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 84% PLC 16% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 91% PLC 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 75% PLC 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC