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Abitibi—Témiscamingue


Député(e) : Sebastien Lemire (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ solide

Historique récent | Abitibi—Témiscamingue


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 49% ± 8% 45,5% 50,6% 49,4% PLC 29% ± 7% 24,8% 24,1% 27,0% PCC 18% ± 6% 15,0% 11,7% 19,7% NPD 3% ± 3% 10,2% 6,1% 3,0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1,0% 3,4% 0,0% PVC 0% ± 0% 3,6% 1,6% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Abitibi—Témiscamingue

Abitibi—Témiscamingue 49% ± 8%▼ BQ 29% ± 7%▲ PLC 18% ± 6%▼ PCC 3% ± 3% NPD BQ 2025 49,4% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Abitibi—Témiscamingue >99% BQ <1% PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

PLC 29% ± 7% PCC 18% ± 6% NPD 3% ± 3% BQ 49% ± 8% Projection du vote % | Abitibi—Témiscamingue 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 54% PCC 21% PLC 12% NPD 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 53% PCC 21% PLC 12% NPD 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 52% PCC 21% PLC 12% NPD 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 53% PCC 20% PLC 13% NPD 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 50% PCC 20% PLC 15% NPD 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 50% PCC 20% PLC 17% NPD 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 48% PCC 21% PLC 18% NPD 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 46% PCC 20% PLC 20% NPD 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 46% PCC 21% PLC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 45% PLC 22% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 44% PLC 23% PCC 20% NPD 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 43% PLC 26% PCC 19% NPD 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 43% PLC 26% PCC 19% NPD 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 42% PLC 27% PCC 19% NPD 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 41% PLC 28% PCC 20% NPD 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 40% PLC 28% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 41% PLC 28% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% PLC 29% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 40% PLC 29% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 40% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 40% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 40% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 40% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 40% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 41% PLC 30% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 41% PLC 30% PCC 19% NPD 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 20% NPD 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 42% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 43% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 43% PLC 30% PCC 20% NPD 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 43% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 43% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 43% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 43% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 22% NPD 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 49% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 49% PLC 27% PCC 20% NPD 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 19% NPD 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 19% NPD 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 50% PLC 27% PCC 19% NPD 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 49% PLC 29% PCC 18% NPD 3% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

PLC <1% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 96% PLC 4% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 97% PLC 3% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 96% PLC 4% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 97% PLC 3% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 98% PLC 2% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 99% PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC