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Canada


Montcalm


Député(e) : Luc Theriault (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ solide

Historique récent | Montcalm


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 46% ± 7% 58,0% 53,2% 46,6% PLC 29% ± 7% 20,7% 20,0% 26,9% PCC 22% ± 6% 8,9% 11,7% 23,2% NPD 4% ± 3% 6,5% 6,3% 3,2% PPC 0% ± 0% 0,9% 4,3% 0,0% PVC 0% ± 0% 4,4% 2,6% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Montcalm

Montcalm 46% ± 7%▼ BQ 29% ± 7%▲ PLC 22% ± 6% PCC 4% ± 3%▲ NPD BQ 2025 46,6% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Montcalm >99% BQ <1% PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Montcalm

PLC 29% ± 7% PCC 22% ± 6% NPD 4% ± 3% BQ 46% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Montcalm 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% PCC 16% PLC 13% NPD 7% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 55% PCC 17% PLC 13% NPD 7% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 54% PCC 17% PLC 13% NPD 7% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 54% PCC 16% PLC 14% NPD 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 52% PLC 16% PCC 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% PLC 18% PCC 16% NPD 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 50% PLC 19% PCC 16% NPD 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 48% PLC 21% PCC 16% NPD 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 47% PLC 22% PCC 16% NPD 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% PLC 23% PCC 16% NPD 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 15% NPD 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 15% NPD 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 16% NPD 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 15% NPD 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 15% NPD 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% PLC 25% PCC 15% NPD 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% PLC 27% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 44% PLC 28% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 41% PLC 30% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% PLC 31% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 41% PLC 31% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 42% PLC 32% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 42% PLC 32% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 47% PLC 35% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 47% PLC 35% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 48% PLC 33% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 48% PLC 33% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 48% PLC 33% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 48% PLC 33% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 49% PLC 32% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 15% NPD 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 50% PLC 30% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 50% PLC 30% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 50% PLC 30% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 16% NPD 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 23% NPD 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 47% PLC 27% PCC 22% NPD 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 46% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 4% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Montcalm

PLC <1% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 94% PLC 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 94% PLC 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC