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Saanich—Gulf Islands


Député(e) : Elizabeth May (PVC)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
PVC probable

Historique récent | Saanich—Gulf Islands


2019 2021 2025 Proj. PVC 40% ± 9% 47,7% 35,8% 39,1% PLC 31% ± 7% 16,9% 18,8% 31,8% PCC 25% ± 6% 20,5% 22,6% 25,1% NPD 4% ± 3% 13,6% 19,5% 4,0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1,3% 3,0% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Saanich—Gulf Islands

Saanich—Gulf Islands 40% ± 9%▲ PVC 31% ± 7% PLC 25% ± 6%▼ PCC 4% ± 3% NPD PVC 2025 39,1% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Saanich—Gulf Islands 93%▲ PVC 7%▼ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Saanich—Gulf Islands

PLC 31% ± 7% PCC 25% ± 6% NPD 4% ± 3% PVC 40% ± 9% Projection du vote % | Saanich—Gulf Islands 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD PVC 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 PVC 35% PCC 33% NPD 19% PLC 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 PCC 34% PVC 34% NPD 18% PLC 12% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 PCC 34% PVC 33% NPD 18% PLC 12% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 PCC 34% PVC 33% NPD 18% PLC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 PVC 33% PCC 33% NPD 17% PLC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 PVC 34% PCC 31% PLC 17% NPD 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PVC 35% PCC 30% PLC 18% NPD 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 PVC 34% PCC 28% PLC 20% NPD 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 PVC 33% PCC 28% PLC 21% NPD 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PVC 33% PCC 29% PLC 22% NPD 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PVC 32% PCC 30% PLC 27% NPD 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PVC 32% PCC 30% PLC 28% NPD 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PVC 31% PCC 30% PLC 28% NPD 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PVC 31% PCC 30% PLC 28% NPD 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PVC 31% PCC 30% PLC 29% NPD 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PVC 30% PCC 30% PLC 29% NPD 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 32% PCC 29% PVC 29% NPD 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 32% PCC 30% PVC 29% NPD 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 33% PCC 30% PVC 28% NPD 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 31% PCC 31% PVC 29% NPD 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 32% PCC 30% PVC 29% NPD 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 32% PCC 30% PVC 29% NPD 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 32% PCC 31% PVC 28% NPD 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 33% PCC 30% PVC 28% NPD 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 33% PCC 30% PVC 28% NPD 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 34% PCC 30% PVC 28% NPD 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 32% PCC 31% PVC 29% NPD 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 32% PCC 31% PVC 29% NPD 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PCC 32% PLC 31% PVC 29% NPD 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PCC 32% PLC 31% PVC 30% NPD 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PCC 32% PLC 31% PVC 30% NPD 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PCC 33% PVC 30% PLC 30% NPD 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PCC 32% PVC 31% PLC 30% NPD 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PVC 33% PCC 32% PLC 26% NPD 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PVC 33% PCC 32% PLC 26% NPD 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PVC 33% PCC 32% PLC 25% NPD 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PVC 33% PCC 32% PLC 24% NPD 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PVC 33% PCC 32% PLC 24% NPD 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PCC 33% PVC 33% PLC 24% NPD 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PCC 33% PVC 32% PLC 24% NPD 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PCC 33% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PCC 33% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PCC 34% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PCC 35% PVC 34% PLC 23% NPD 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PCC 35% PVC 33% PLC 24% NPD 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PCC 35% PVC 33% PLC 24% NPD 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PCC 34% PVC 34% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PCC 34% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PCC 34% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PCC 35% PVC 33% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PCC 34% PVC 33% PLC 27% NPD 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PVC 39% PLC 32% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PVC 39% PLC 31% PCC 26% NPD 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PVC 39% PLC 31% PCC 26% NPD 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PVC 40% PLC 31% PCC 25% NPD 4% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Saanich—Gulf Islands

PLC 7% PCC <1% NPD <1% PVC 93% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD PVC 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 PVC 68% PCC 32% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 PCC 53% PVC 47% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 PCC 53% PVC 47% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 PCC 53% PVC 47% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 PVC 52% PCC 48% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 PVC 70% PCC 30% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PVC 76% PCC 24% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 PVC 82% PCC 18% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 PVC 80% PCC 20% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 PVC 70% PCC 30% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PVC 62% PCC 29% PLC 9% NPD <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PVC 56% PCC 30% PLC 14% NPD <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PVC 53% PCC 31% PLC 16% NPD <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PVC 48% PCC 33% PLC 18% NPD <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PVC 47% PCC 32% PLC 22% NPD <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PVC 42% PCC 33% PLC 25% NPD <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 57% PVC 22% PCC 21% NPD <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 60% PCC 21% PVC 19% NPD <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 63% PCC 20% PVC 17% NPD <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 44% PCC 33% PVC 23% NPD <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 49% PCC 30% PVC 21% NPD <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 53% PCC 29% PVC 18% NPD <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 52% PCC 32% PVC 17% NPD <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 63% PCC 24% PVC 13% NPD <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 PLC 65% PCC 23% PVC 12% NPD <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 PLC 73% PCC 17% PVC 10% NPD <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 PLC 44% PCC 37% PVC 18% NPD <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 PLC 41% PCC 40% PVC 19% NPD <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 PCC 41% PLC 38% PVC 21% NPD <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 PCC 42% PLC 32% PVC 26% NPD <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 PCC 44% PLC 30% PVC 26% NPD <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PCC 54% PVC 26% PLC 20% NPD <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PCC 47% PVC 31% PLC 22% NPD <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PVC 54% PCC 42% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PVC 58% PCC 39% PLC 3% NPD <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PVC 58% PCC 41% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PVC 57% PCC 42% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PVC 52% PCC 47% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PCC 51% PVC 49% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PCC 53% PVC 46% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PCC 50% PVC 49% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 PCC 52% PVC 48% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PCC 53% PVC 46% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PCC 55% PVC 45% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PCC 60% PVC 40% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PCC 63% PVC 37% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PCC 52% PVC 48% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PCC 53% PVC 46% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PCC 56% PVC 44% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PCC 58% PVC 41% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PCC 56% PVC 42% PLC 2% NPD <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PVC 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PVC 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PVC 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PVC 96% PLC 4% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PVC 87% PLC 13% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PVC 87% PLC 12% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PVC 90% PLC 9% PCC 0% NPD <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PVC 91% PLC 8% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PVC 93% PLC 7% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC