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Canada


Joliette—Manawan


Député(e) : Gabriel Ste-Marie (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ probable

Historique récent | Joliette—Manawan


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 48% ± 7% 58,3% 55,1% 49,3% PLC 33% ± 7% 22,5% 22,3% 31,3% PCC 14% ± 5% 8,9% 9,5% 15,2% NPD 3% ± 2% 4,7% 5,8% 2,5% PVC 2% ± 2% 4,0% 2,0% 1,8% PPC 0% ± 0% 0,9% 3,0% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Joliette—Manawan

Joliette—Manawan 48% ± 7%▼ BQ 33% ± 7%▲ PLC 14% ± 5%▼ PCC 3% ± 2% NPD BQ 2025 49,3% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Joliette—Manawan 99%▼ BQ 1%▲ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Joliette—Manawan

PLC 33% ± 7% PCC 14% ± 5% BQ 48% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Joliette—Manawan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% PLC 15% PCC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 56% PLC 15% PCC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 55% PLC 16% PCC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 55% PLC 16% PCC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 52% PLC 19% PCC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% PLC 21% PCC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 50% PLC 22% PCC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 48% PLC 25% PCC 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 47% PLC 25% PCC 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% PLC 27% PCC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% PLC 29% PCC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% PLC 31% PCC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% PLC 32% PCC 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% PLC 33% PCC 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 41% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 41% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 41% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% PLC 35% PCC 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 40% PLC 36% PCC 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 40% PLC 36% PCC 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 41% PLC 36% PCC 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 41% PLC 36% PCC 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 40% PLC 36% PCC 13% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 40% PLC 37% PCC 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 41% PLC 36% PCC 12% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 47% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 47% PLC 33% PCC 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 47% PLC 33% PCC 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 47% PLC 33% PCC 13% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 47% PLC 33% PCC 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 48% PLC 32% PCC 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 49% PLC 32% PCC 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 48% PLC 31% PCC 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 48% PLC 31% PCC 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 48% PLC 31% PCC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 48% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 48% PLC 30% PCC 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 48% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 49% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 50% PLC 31% PCC 15% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 48% PLC 33% PCC 14% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Joliette—Manawan

PLC 1% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 94% PLC 6% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 91% PLC 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 80% PLC 20% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 74% PLC 26% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 79% PLC 21% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 78% PLC 22% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 75% PLC 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 73% PLC 27% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 76% PLC 24% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 80% PLC 20% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC