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Canada


Beloeil—Chambly


Député(e) : Yves-Francois Blanchet (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
BQ probable

Historique récent | Beloeil—Chambly


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 47% ± 7% 50,8% 53,5% 48,3% PLC 36% ± 7% 22,6% 23,4% 34,0% PCC 13% ± 4% 6,1% 8,4% 13,5% NPD 4% ± 3% 14,8% 8,5% 3,5% PPC 1% ± 1% 0,7% 2,0% 0,7% PVC 0% ± 0% 4,7% 2,0% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Beloeil—Chambly

Beloeil—Chambly 47% ± 7%▼ BQ 36% ± 7%▲ PLC 13% ± 4% PCC 4% ± 3% NPD BQ 2025 48,3% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Beloeil—Chambly 97%▼ BQ 3%▲ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Beloeil—Chambly

PLC 36% ± 7% PCC 13% ± 4% NPD 4% ± 3% BQ 47% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Beloeil—Chambly 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% PLC 16% PCC 12% NPD 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 55% PLC 16% PCC 13% NPD 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 55% PLC 16% PCC 13% NPD 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 55% PLC 17% PCC 12% NPD 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 52% PLC 20% PCC 12% NPD 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% PLC 22% PCC 12% NPD 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 50% PLC 23% PCC 12% NPD 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 48% PLC 26% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 47% PLC 26% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% PLC 28% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 12% NPD 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 11% NPD 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% PLC 30% PCC 11% NPD 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% PLC 32% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 43% PLC 33% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% PLC 33% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% PLC 34% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 41% PLC 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 41% PLC 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 41% PLC 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% PLC 36% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 40% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 40% PLC 38% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 40% PLC 38% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 41% PLC 37% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 42% PLC 37% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 43% PLC 39% PCC 11% NPD 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 44% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 44% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 44% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 44% PLC 36% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 44% PLC 37% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 44% PLC 36% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 44% PLC 36% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 45% PLC 36% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 45% PLC 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 45% PLC 35% PCC 12% NPD 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 46% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 46% PLC 33% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 46% PLC 33% PCC 13% NPD 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 46% PLC 33% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 47% PLC 32% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 45% PLC 34% PCC 14% NPD 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 48% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 48% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 48% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 48% PLC 34% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 48% PLC 34% PCC 14% NPD 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 49% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 49% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 49% PLC 34% PCC 13% NPD 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 47% PLC 36% PCC 13% NPD 4% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Beloeil—Chambly

PLC 3% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 97% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 86% PLC 14% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 81% PLC 19% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 74% PLC 26% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 66% PLC 34% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 77% PLC 23% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 75% PLC 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 73% PLC 27% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 70% PLC 30% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 73% PLC 27% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 81% PLC 19% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 77% PLC 23% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 87% PLC 13% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC