Nouveau Parti démocratique
Dernière mise à jour: 26 mars 2023
| Chef | Jagmeet Singh |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 17.8% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 19,9 % ± 3,4 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 25 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 23 [13-47] |
* L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire,
mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 26 mars 2023
Projection de sièges | 26 mars 2023
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Nouveau Parti démocratique
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton Strathcona |  |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Elmwood–Transcona |  |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Hamilton-Centre |  |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Vancouver-Est |  |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie |  |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | London–Fanshawe | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | New Westminster–Burnaby | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Winnipeg-Centre | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Vancouver Kingsway | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Victoria | |
|
NPD solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Timmins–Baie James | |
|
NPD probable | 99 % |
| 16. | Nunavut |  |
|
NPD probable | 92 % |
| 17. | Burnaby-Sud | |
|
NPD probable | 91 % |
| 18. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
NPD enclin | 89 % |
| 19. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | |
|
NPD enclin | 88 % |
| 20. | Courtenay–Alberni | |
|
NPD enclin | 78 % |
| 21. | Windsor–Tecumseh | |
 |
Pivot PLC/NPD | 61 % |
| 22. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 57 % |
| 23. | Davenport | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 49 % |
| 24. | Halifax |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 48 % |
| 25. | Parkdale–High Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 44 % |
| 26. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 41 % |
| 27. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 41 % |
| 28. | Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 40 % |
| 29. | St. John’s-Est |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 39 % |
| 30. | Toronto–Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 35 % |
| 31. | North Island–Powell River | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 35 % |
| 32. | London-Centre-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 34 % |
| 33. | Sudbury | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 33 % |
| 34. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 33 % |
| 35. | Spadina–Fort York | |
 |
Pivot PLC/NPD | 32 % |
| 36. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC | 31 % |
| 37. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 31 % |
| 38. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 31 % |
| 39. | Nickel Belt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 29 % |
| 40. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 26 % |
| 41. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 25 % |
| 42. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
PLC enclin | 24 % |
| 43. | Essex | |
 |
PCC enclin | 24 % |
| 44. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 45. | Kingston et les Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 18 % |
| 46. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC enclin | 17 % |
| 47. | London-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 16 % |
| 48. | Niagara-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 16 % |
| 49. | Saskatoon-Ouest |  |
|
PCC enclin | 15 % |
| 50. | Regina–Lewvan | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 51. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 52. | Kenora | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 53. | Saskatoon–University | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 54. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 55. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 56. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | |
|
PLC enclin | 10 % |
| 57. | Labrador | |
|
PLC enclin | 7 % |
| 58. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 6 % |
| 59. | Outremont | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 61. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 62. | Kildonan–St. Paul | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 63. | Guelph | |
|
PLC probable | 4 % |
| 64. | St. Catharines | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 3 % |
| 65. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 3 % |
| 66. | St. Albert–Edmonton | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 67. | Ottawa–Vanier | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 68. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 69. | University–Rosedale | |
|
PLC probable | 2 % |
| 70. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| 71. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton Strathcona | NPD solide |
| 2. | Elmwood–Transcona | NPD solide |
| 3. | Hamilton-Centre | NPD solide |
| 4. | Vancouver-Est | NPD solide |
| 5. | Windsor-Ouest | NPD solide |
| 6. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NPD solide |
| 7. | London–Fanshawe | NPD solide |
| 8. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NPD solide |
| 9. | Winnipeg-Centre | NPD solide |
| 10. | Vancouver Kingsway | NPD solide |
| 11. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NPD solide |
| 12. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NPD solide |
| 13. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NPD solide |
| 14. | Victoria | NPD solide |
| 15. | Timmins–Baie James | NPD probable |
| 16. | Nunavut | NPD probable |
| 17. | Burnaby-Sud | NPD probable |
| 18. | Edmonton Griesbach | NPD enclin |
| 19. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | NPD enclin |
| 20. | Courtenay–Alberni | NPD enclin |
| 21. | Windsor–Tecumseh | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 22. | Hamilton Mountain | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 23. | Davenport | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 24. | Halifax | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 25. | Parkdale–High Park | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 26. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 27. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 28. | Okanagan-Sud–Kootenay-Ouest | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 29. | St. John’s-Est | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 30. | Toronto–Danforth | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 31. | North Island–Powell River | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 32. | London-Centre-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 33. | Sudbury | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 34. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 35. | Spadina–Fort York | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 36. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | Pivot PCC/NPD/PVC |
| 37. | Ottawa-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 38. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 39. | Nickel Belt | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 40. | Vancouver Granville | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 41. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 42. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | PLC enclin |
| 43. | Essex | PCC enclin |
| 44. | Oshawa | PCC enclin |
| 45. | Kingston et les Îles | PLC enclin |
| 46. | Edmonton Manning | PCC enclin |
| 47. | London-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 48. | Niagara-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 49. | Saskatoon-Ouest | PCC enclin |
| 50. | Regina–Lewvan | PCC enclin |
| 51. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | PCC enclin |
| 52. | Kenora | PCC enclin |
| 53. | Saskatoon–University | PCC enclin |
| 54. | Yukon | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 55. | Edmonton-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 56. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | PLC enclin |
| 57. | Labrador | PLC enclin |
| 58. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 59. | Outremont | PLC probable |
| 60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | PLC probable |
| 61. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | PLC probable |
| 62. | Kildonan–St. Paul | PCC probable |
| 63. | Guelph | PLC probable |
| 64. | St. Catharines | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 65. | Vancouver-Centre | PLC probable |
| 66. | St. Albert–Edmonton | PCC probable |
| 67. | Ottawa–Vanier | PLC probable |
| 68. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | PCC probable |
| 69. | University–Rosedale | PLC probable |
| 70. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | PLC probable |
| 71. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable |