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Canada


Drummond


Député(e) : Martin Champoux (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 6 juillet 2025
BQ probable

Historique récent | Drummond


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 41% ± 7% 44,8% 46,6% 42,8% PLC 31% ± 7% 17,4% 18,8% 28,4% PCC 21% ± 6% 16,6% 17,9% 22,7% NPD 5% ± 4% 15,9% 11,2% 4,6% PPC 1% ± 2% 1,0% 0,0% 1,4%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Drummond

Drummond 41% ± 7%▼ BQ 31% ± 7%▲ PLC 21% ± 6% PCC 5% ± 4% NPD BQ 2025 42,8% Projection du vote | 6 juillet 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Drummond 96%▼ BQ 4%▲ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 6 juillet 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Drummond

PLC 31% ± 7% PCC 21% ± 6% NPD 5% ± 4% BQ 41% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Drummond 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 6 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 48% PCC 28% NPD 13% PLC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 47% PCC 29% NPD 13% PLC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 47% PCC 29% NPD 13% PLC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 47% PCC 28% NPD 13% PLC 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 46% PCC 28% NPD 13% PLC 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 45% PCC 28% PLC 13% NPD 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 44% PCC 29% PLC 14% NPD 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 43% PCC 29% PLC 15% NPD 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 42% PCC 29% PLC 16% NPD 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 41% PCC 29% PLC 17% NPD 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 41% PCC 29% PLC 19% NPD 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 40% PCC 29% PLC 19% NPD 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 40% PCC 29% PLC 19% NPD 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 40% PCC 29% PLC 19% NPD 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 41% PCC 29% PLC 19% NPD 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 41% PCC 28% PLC 19% NPD 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 40% PCC 28% PLC 22% NPD 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 40% PCC 28% PLC 22% NPD 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 39% PCC 28% PLC 22% NPD 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 39% PCC 29% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 24% NPD 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 24% NPD 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 37% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 37% PCC 30% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 38% PCC 28% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 38% PCC 28% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 38% PCC 28% PLC 26% NPD 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 38% PCC 30% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 38% PCC 29% PLC 25% NPD 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 39% PCC 29% PLC 24% NPD 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 40% PCC 29% PLC 24% NPD 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 39% PCC 30% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 22% NPD 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 22% NPD 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 39% PCC 31% PLC 22% NPD 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 38% PCC 31% PLC 23% NPD 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 23% NPD 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 43% PLC 28% PCC 22% NPD 5% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 44% PLC 28% PCC 22% NPD 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 43% PLC 29% PCC 22% NPD 5% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 42% PLC 30% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 41% PLC 31% PCC 21% NPD 5% 2025-07-06 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Drummond

PLC 4% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 96% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 6 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% PCC <1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 98% PCC 2% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 99% PCC 1% NPD <1% PLC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 99% PCC 1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 99% PCC 1% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 98% PCC 2% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 97% PCC 3% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 94% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 90% PCC 10% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 90% PCC 10% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 91% PCC 8% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 92% PCC 7% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 91% PCC 9% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 90% PCC 9% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 95% PCC 4% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 97% PCC 2% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 96% PCC 4% PLC 1% NPD <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 95% PCC 4% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 93% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 94% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 93% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 94% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 96% PCC 4% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 96% PCC 4% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 97% PCC 3% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 95% PCC 5% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 94% PCC 6% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 93% PCC 7% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 91% PCC 9% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 91% PCC 9% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 91% PCC 9% PLC <1% NPD <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ >99% PLC <1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ >99% PLC <1% PCC <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 98% PLC 2% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-06 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC