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Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


Député(e) : Rebecca Chartrand (PLC)


Dernière mise à jour : 29 juin 2025
PLC probable

Historique récent | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


2019 2021 2025 Proj. PLC 46% ± 11% 23,6% 25,2% 45,5% NPD 30% ± 10% 50,2% 42,6% 28,7% PCC 22% ± 8% 20,1% 24,2% 24,1% PPC 2% ± 3% 1,2% 5,0% 1,7% PVC 0% ± 0% 4,8% 3,1% 0,0%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 46% ± 11% PLC 30% ± 10% NPD 22% ± 8%▼ PCC PLC 2025 45,5% Projection du vote | 29 juin 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 29 juin 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

PLC 46% ± 11% PCC 22% ± 8% NPD 30% ± 10% Projection du vote % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 NPD 38% PCC 35% PLC 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NPD 38% PCC 34% PLC 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NPD 38% PCC 34% PLC 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NPD 37% PCC 34% PLC 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NPD 36% PCC 32% PLC 25% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 PCC 32% NPD 32% PLC 28% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PCC 33% NPD 30% PLC 30% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NPD 32% PCC 30% PLC 30% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NPD 32% PCC 30% PLC 30% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NPD 32% PLC 32% PCC 28% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 37% PCC 29% NPD 28% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 36% NPD 29% PCC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 28% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 28% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 37% NPD 29% PCC 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 36% NPD 29% PCC 29% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 36% NPD 29% PCC 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 36% NPD 29% PCC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 36% NPD 30% PCC 28% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 36% NPD 31% PCC 28% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 36% NPD 31% PCC 28% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 36% NPD 32% PCC 27% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 35% NPD 35% PCC 27% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NPD 36% PLC 34% PCC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NPD 36% PLC 34% PCC 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NPD 36% PLC 34% PCC 26% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NPD 36% PLC 34% PCC 26% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NPD 36% PLC 35% PCC 25% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NPD 36% PLC 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NPD 35% PLC 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 35% NPD 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 36% NPD 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 36% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 36% NPD 35% PCC 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 36% NPD 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 36% NPD 35% PCC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 36% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NPD 37% PLC 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 25% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 37% NPD 36% PCC 26% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 45% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 45% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 45% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 46% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 45% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 45% NPD 29% PCC 24% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 45% NPD 30% PCC 24% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 46% NPD 30% PCC 23% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 46% NPD 30% PCC 22% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

PLC 97% PCC <1% NPD 3% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD 29 juin 2025 2025-01-12 NPD 66% PCC 34% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NPD 69% PCC 31% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NPD 70% PCC 30% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NPD 65% PCC 35% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NPD 67% PCC 30% PLC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 PCC 44% NPD 43% PLC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 PCC 48% PLC 26% NPD 26% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NPD 46% PCC 30% PLC 25% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NPD 45% PCC 29% PLC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NPD 46% PLC 40% PCC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 PLC 83% PCC 10% NPD 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 PLC 78% NPD 13% PCC 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 PLC 78% NPD 14% PCC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 PLC 78% NPD 14% PCC 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 PLC 79% NPD 13% PCC 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 PLC 78% NPD 13% PCC 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 PLC 75% NPD 14% PCC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 PLC 76% NPD 12% PCC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 PLC 74% NPD 15% PCC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 PLC 70% NPD 20% PCC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 PLC 70% NPD 22% PCC 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 PLC 67% NPD 26% PCC 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 PLC 65% NPD 29% PCC 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 PLC 48% NPD 48% PCC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NPD 58% PLC 38% PCC 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NPD 59% PLC 38% PCC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NPD 59% PLC 37% PCC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NPD 56% PLC 40% PCC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NPD 54% PLC 44% PCC 2% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NPD 51% PLC 47% PCC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NPD 50% PLC 47% PCC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 PLC 49% NPD 49% PCC 2% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 PLC 51% NPD 47% PCC 2% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 PLC 49% NPD 49% PCC 2% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 PLC 53% NPD 45% PCC 2% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 PLC 52% NPD 45% PCC 2% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 PLC 53% NPD 44% PCC 2% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 PLC 53% NPD 44% PCC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 PLC 53% NPD 44% PCC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 PLC 51% NPD 47% PCC 2% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 PLC 50% NPD 49% PCC 2% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NPD 52% PLC 47% PCC 2% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 PLC 54% NPD 45% PCC 1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 PLC 55% NPD 44% PCC 1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 PLC 54% NPD 45% PCC 1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 PLC 55% NPD 44% PCC 1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 PLC 58% NPD 41% PCC 1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 PLC 57% NPD 42% PCC 1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 PLC 57% NPD 41% PCC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 PLC 57% NPD 42% PCC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 PLC 55% NPD 43% PCC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 PLC 99% NPD 1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 PLC 99% NPD 1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 PLC 99% NPD 1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 PLC 99% NPD 1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 PLC 98% NPD 2% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 PLC 97% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 PLC 96% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 PLC 97% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 PLC 97% NPD 3% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC