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Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton


Député(e) : Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay (BQ)


Dernière mise à jour : 13 juillet 2025
BQ enclin

Historique récent | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 42% ± 7% 41,4% 47,5% 43,9% PLC 37% ± 7% 21,3% 22,7% 33,6% PCC 16% ± 5% 14,4% 13,5% 18,0% NPD 3% ± 2% 18,4% 11,6% 2,4% PVC 1% ± 2% 3,6% 0,0% 1,4% PPC 1% ± 1% 0,9% 2,7% 0,7%
Les données de 2019 et 2021 sont celles transposées sur la nouvelle carte électorale.





Projection pour Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton 42% ± 7% BQ 37% ± 7% PLC 16% ± 5% PCC 3% ± 2% NPD BQ 2025 43,9% Projection du vote | 13 juillet 2025
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton 77%▼ BQ 23%▲ PLC <1% PCC Probabilités de victoire | 13 juillet 2025
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton

PLC 37% ± 7% PCC 16% ± 5% BQ 42% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC BQ 13 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 52% PCC 18% PLC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 51% PCC 19% PLC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 51% PCC 19% PLC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 51% PCC 18% PLC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 48% PLC 18% PCC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 48% PLC 20% PCC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 46% PLC 22% PCC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 44% PLC 24% PCC 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 43% PLC 25% PCC 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 43% PLC 27% PCC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 41% PLC 29% PCC 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 41% PLC 29% PCC 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 41% PLC 29% PCC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 41% PLC 29% PCC 17% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 17% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 42% PLC 29% PCC 17% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 40% PLC 32% PCC 17% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 40% PLC 33% PCC 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 39% PLC 33% PCC 17% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 38% PLC 34% PCC 18% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 38% PLC 34% PCC 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 38% PLC 34% PCC 17% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 38% PLC 35% PCC 18% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 37% PLC 35% PCC 18% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 37% PLC 36% PCC 18% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 37% PLC 36% PCC 18% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 37% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 37% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 37% PLC 37% PCC 17% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 38% PLC 37% PCC 16% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 38% PLC 36% PCC 16% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 38% PLC 37% PCC 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 38% PLC 37% PCC 17% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 38% PLC 37% PCC 17% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 38% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 38% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 38% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 38% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 39% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 39% PLC 35% PCC 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 39% PLC 35% PCC 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 39% PLC 35% PCC 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 40% PLC 34% PCC 17% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 41% PLC 34% PCC 17% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 40% PLC 33% PCC 18% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 40% PLC 33% PCC 18% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 40% PLC 32% PCC 18% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 40% PLC 32% PCC 19% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 41% PLC 32% PCC 19% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 40% PLC 33% PCC 19% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 44% PLC 33% PCC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 44% PLC 33% PCC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 44% PLC 33% PCC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 44% PLC 34% PCC 18% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 44% PLC 34% PCC 18% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 44% PLC 34% PCC 18% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 45% PLC 33% PCC 17% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 44% PLC 34% PCC 17% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 43% PLC 36% PCC 17% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 42% PLC 37% PCC 16% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 42% PLC 37% PCC 16% 2025-07-13 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC

Probabilités de victoire | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton

PLC 23% PCC <1% NPD <1% BQ 77% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Élection 2025 PLC PCC NPD BQ 13 juillet 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NPD <1% PCC <1% PLC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 95% PLC 5% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 78% PLC 22% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 75% PLC 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 77% PLC 23% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 69% PLC 31% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 61% PLC 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 53% PLC 47% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 60% PLC 40% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 57% PLC 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 55% PLC 45% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 52% PLC 48% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 56% PLC 44% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 62% PLC 38% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 57% PLC 43% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 59% PLC 41% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 61% PLC 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 61% PLC 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 66% PLC 34% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 61% PLC 39% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 65% PLC 35% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 70% PLC 30% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 73% PLC 27% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 75% PLC 25% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 76% PLC 24% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 85% PLC 15% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 88% PLC 12% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 91% PLC 9% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 92% PLC 8% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 93% PLC 7% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 89% PLC 11% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% PLC <1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 99% PLC 1% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 97% PLC 3% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 96% PLC 4% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 90% PLC 10% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 81% PLC 19% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 77% PLC 23% NPD <1% PCC <1% 2025-07-13 Démission J.Trudeau Carney chef PLC