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Ontario

Waterloo


Député(e) : Fife, Catherine (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
NPD probable
Waterloo 39% ± 9%▲ NPD 30% ± 8%▼ PPCO 17% ± 6% PLO 10% ± 5% PVO NPD 2022 45,9% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Waterloo 96%▲ NPD 4%▼ PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Waterloo

PLO 17% ± 6% PPCO 30% ± 8% NPD 39% ± 9% PVO 10% ± 5% Projection du vote % | Waterloo 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 33% PPCO 33% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 33% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 33% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 33% PPCO 31% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 33% PPCO 31% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 33% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 33% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 36% PPCO 32% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 36% PPCO 33% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 36% PPCO 33% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 46% PPCO 29% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 46% PPCO 29% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 43% PPCO 29% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 43% PPCO 29% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 14% PVO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 46% PPCO 25% PLO 14% PVO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 46% PPCO 26% PLO 14% PVO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 46% PPCO 27% PLO 14% PVO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 45% PPCO 27% PLO 14% PVO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 47% PPCO 25% PLO 15% PVO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 46% PPCO 26% PLO 14% PVO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 45% PPCO 28% PLO 14% PVO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 45% PPCO 28% PLO 15% PVO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 45% PPCO 28% PLO 15% PVO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 41% PPCO 27% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 39% PPCO 28% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 41% PPCO 29% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 40% PPCO 29% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 40% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 39% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Waterloo

PLO <1% PPCO 4% NPD 96% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 68% PPCO 32% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 63% PPCO 37% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 61% PPCO 39% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 63% PPCO 37% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 65% PPCO 35% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 69% PPCO 31% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 64% PPCO 36% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 66% PPCO 34% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 60% PPCO 40% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 54% PPCO 46% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 54% PPCO 46% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 61% PPCO 39% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 68% PPCO 32% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 72% PPCO 28% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 65% PPCO 35% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 65% PPCO 35% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 63% PPCO 37% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 63% PPCO 37% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 72% PPCO 28% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 60% PPCO 40% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 59% PPCO 41% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 74% PPCO 26% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 68% PPCO 32% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Waterloo



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 36,7% 50,5% 45,9% 39% ± 9% PPCO 27,2% 31,4% 29,3% 30% ± 8% PLO 30,2% 12,2% 13,9% 17% ± 6% PVO 5,0% 4,8% 6,9% 10% ± 5% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,6% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,8% 1% ± 1%