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Ontario

Parkdale—High Park


Député(e) : Karpoche, Bhutila (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 15 décembre 2024
NPD solide
Parkdale—High Park 50% ± 9%▲ NPD 24% ± 7%▼ PLO 16% ± 6%▲ PPCO 8% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 54,0% Projection du vote | 15 décembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Parkdale—High Park >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 15 décembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Parkdale—High Park

PLO 24% ± 7% PPCO 16% ± 6% NPD 50% ± 9% PVO 8% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Parkdale—High Park 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 15 décembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 45% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 46% PLO 26% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 45% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 45% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 45% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 45% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 45% PLO 26% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 45% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 44% PLO 27% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 45% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 44% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 44% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 44% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 44% PLO 26% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 44% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 42% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 41% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 41% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 39% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 39% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 39% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 39% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 39% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 38% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 38% PLO 28% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 39% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 38% PLO 27% PPCO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 38% PLO 27% PPCO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 42% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 42% PLO 27% PPCO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 42% PLO 26% PPCO 18% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 54% PLO 22% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 54% PLO 22% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 51% PLO 24% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 51% PLO 24% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 51% PLO 24% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 52% PLO 23% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 53% PLO 22% PPCO 12% PVO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 54% PLO 23% PPCO 12% PVO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 53% PLO 23% PPCO 13% PVO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 53% PLO 23% PPCO 13% PVO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 54% PLO 23% PPCO 12% PVO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 54% PLO 23% PPCO 13% PVO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 54% PLO 22% PPCO 14% PVO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 53% PLO 24% PPCO 13% PVO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 52% PLO 25% PPCO 13% PVO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 50% PLO 28% PPCO 12% PVO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 48% PLO 27% PPCO 14% PVO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 50% PLO 26% PPCO 14% PVO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 49% PLO 26% PPCO 14% PVO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 50% PLO 25% PPCO 15% PVO 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 48% PLO 25% PPCO 16% PVO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 49% PLO 25% PPCO 15% PVO 8% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 49% PLO 25% PPCO 15% PVO 8% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NPD 50% PLO 24% PPCO 16% PVO 8% 2024-12-15

Probabilités de victoire | Parkdale—High Park

PLO <1% PPCO <1% NPD >99% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 15 décembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-12-15

Historique récent | Parkdale—High Park



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 40,8% 59,4% 54,0% 50% ± 9% PLO 39,6% 17,0% 22,4% 24% ± 7% PPCO 12,8% 18,0% 14,7% 16% ± 6% PVO 5,5% 4,7% 6,1% 8% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,8% 0% ± 1%