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Ontario

Ottawa West—Nepean


Député(e) : Pasma, Chandra (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
Ottawa West—Nepean 36% ± 8%▲ PPCO 34% ± 8% NPD 24% ± 7% PLO 5% ± 3% PVO NPD 2022 37,0% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Ottawa West—Nepean 62%▲ PPCO 38%▼ NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Ottawa West—Nepean

PLO 24% ± 7% PPCO 36% ± 8% NPD 34% ± 8% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Ottawa West—Nepean 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 21% PVO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 40% PPCO 30% NPD 22% PVO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 37% PPCO 31% NPD 25% PVO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 37% PPCO 31% NPD 24% PVO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 37% PPCO 31% NPD 24% PVO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 37% PPCO 31% NPD 25% PVO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 38% PPCO 30% NPD 25% PVO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 38% PPCO 30% NPD 24% PVO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 34% PPCO 30% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 33% PPCO 33% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 34% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 35% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 34% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 34% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 28% PVO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 28% PVO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 33% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 33% PLO 33% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 33% PLO 33% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 33% PPCO 33% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 33% PPCO 33% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 33% PPCO 33% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 37% PPCO 35% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 37% PPCO 34% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 35% NPD 35% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 35% NPD 35% PLO 24% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 35% PPCO 35% PLO 24% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 36% PPCO 35% PLO 24% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 37% PPCO 32% PLO 23% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 37% PPCO 33% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 38% PPCO 32% PLO 23% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 37% PPCO 34% PLO 23% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 36% PPCO 33% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 36% PPCO 33% PLO 25% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 27% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 25% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 35% PPCO 34% PLO 25% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 35% PPCO 35% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 36% NPD 33% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 35% NPD 34% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 36% NPD 34% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Ottawa West—Nepean

PLO <1% PPCO 62% NPD 38% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 94% PPCO 6% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 96% PPCO 4% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 86% PPCO 14% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 86% PPCO 14% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 87% PPCO 13% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 89% PPCO 11% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 90% PPCO 10% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 92% PPCO 8% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 71% PPCO 23% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 56% PPCO 36% NPD 8% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 56% PPCO 37% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 54% PPCO 40% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 54% PPCO 40% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 47% PPCO 46% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 59% PPCO 34% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 65% PPCO 32% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 63% PPCO 34% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 60% PPCO 37% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 59% PPCO 36% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 58% PPCO 36% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 60% PPCO 34% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 56% PPCO 39% NPD 5% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 58% PPCO 38% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 57% PPCO 39% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 57% PPCO 39% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 54% PPCO 42% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 49% PLO 49% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 49% PLO 49% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 49% PPCO 49% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 50% PPCO 49% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 50% PPCO 49% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 71% PPCO 29% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 50% NPD 50% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 50% NPD 50% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 50% NPD 50% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 79% PPCO 21% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 68% PPCO 32% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 68% PPCO 32% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 74% PPCO 22% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 56% PPCO 42% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 64% PPCO 36% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 56% PPCO 43% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 52% PPCO 48% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 72% NPD 27% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 58% NPD 42% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 62% NPD 38% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Ottawa West—Nepean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 14,4% 32,5% 37,0% 34% ± 8% PPCO 33,9% 32,8% 34,9% 36% ± 8% PLO 44,8% 29,3% 22,7% 24% ± 7% PVO 6,2% 3,8% 3,9% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,5% 1% ± 1%