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Ontario

Niagara Falls


Député(e) : Gates, Wayne (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
Niagara Falls 41% ± 9%▼ NPD 39% ± 8%▲ PPCO 13% ± 5% PLO 4% ± 3% PVO NPD 2022 48,1% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Niagara Falls 67%▼ NPD 33%▲ PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Niagara Falls

PLO 13% ± 5% PPCO 39% ± 8% NPD 41% ± 9% Projection du vote % | Niagara Falls 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 37% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 37% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 37% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 37% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 36% PPCO 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 36% PPCO 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 36% PPCO 35% PLO 18% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 36% PPCO 35% PLO 18% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 36% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 35% NPD 35% PLO 17% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 35% NPD 33% PLO 19% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 35% NPD 33% PLO 19% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 35% NPD 33% PLO 18% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 34% PPCO 34% PLO 18% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 34% PPCO 34% PLO 18% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 34% PPCO 34% PLO 18% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 34% NPD 34% PLO 18% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 34% NPD 34% PLO 18% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 35% PPCO 34% PLO 17% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 35% PPCO 34% PLO 17% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 35% PPCO 34% PLO 17% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 34% PPCO 34% PLO 17% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 36% PPCO 36% PLO 13% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 48% PPCO 36% PLO 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 49% PPCO 36% PLO 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 46% PPCO 37% PLO 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 46% PPCO 37% PLO 9% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 46% PPCO 37% PLO 9% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 47% PPCO 37% PLO 9% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 50% PPCO 33% PLO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 50% PPCO 33% PLO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 49% PPCO 34% PLO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 48% PPCO 34% PLO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 50% PPCO 32% PLO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 49% PPCO 34% PLO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 48% PPCO 36% PLO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 48% PPCO 36% PLO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 48% PPCO 36% PLO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 43% PPCO 34% PLO 16% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 41% PPCO 36% PLO 16% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 42% PPCO 36% PLO 15% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 43% PPCO 37% PLO 13% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 42% PPCO 38% PLO 12% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 40% PPCO 40% PLO 12% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 42% PPCO 38% PLO 13% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 41% PPCO 39% PLO 13% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Niagara Falls

PLO <1% PPCO 33% NPD 67% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 56% NPD 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 63% NPD 37% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 66% NPD 34% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 63% NPD 37% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 54% PPCO 46% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 57% PPCO 43% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 52% PPCO 48% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 55% PPCO 45% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 55% NPD 45% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 59% NPD 41% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 59% NPD 41% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 60% NPD 40% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 53% PPCO 47% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 53% PPCO 47% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 53% NPD 47% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 53% NPD 47% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 69% PPCO 31% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 53% PPCO 47% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 51% PPCO 49% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 80% PPCO 20% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 72% PPCO 28% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 67% PPCO 33% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Niagara Falls



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 47,4% 50,8% 48,1% 41% ± 9% PPCO 32,8% 35,6% 36,5% 39% ± 8% PLO 14,4% 9,4% 8,4% 13% ± 5% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,8% 2% ± 2% PVO 3,4% 3,5% 2,7% 4% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 1%