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Ontario

Kitchener Centre


Député(e) : Clancy, Aislinn (PVO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PVO probable
Kitchener Centre 45% ± 11%▲ PVO 25% ± 8%▼ PPCO 18% ± 7% NPD 10% ± 5% PLO NPD 2022 40,6% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Kitchener Centre

PLO 10% ± 5% PPCO 25% ± 8% NPD 18% ± 7% PVO 45% ± 11% Projection du vote % | Kitchener Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 32% PPCO 28% NPD 26% PVO 8% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 30% PLO 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 30% PLO 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 29% PLO 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 30% NPD 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 30% NPD 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 30% NPD 30% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 31% NPD 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 30% NPD 29% PPCO 27% PVO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 29% PLO 29% PPCO 28% PVO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 29% NPD 29% PPCO 28% PVO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 29% NPD 29% PPCO 28% PVO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 30% NPD 30% PPCO 29% PVO 8% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 30% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 8% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 31% NPD 30% PPCO 29% PVO 8% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 30% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 30% PLO 29% PPCO 29% PVO 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 29% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 29% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 30% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 30% PLO 28% PPCO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 29% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 29% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 29% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 29% PPCO 28% PLO 28% PVO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 30% PPCO 29% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO 12% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 41% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 13% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 41% PPCO 26% PLO 15% PVO 13% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 38% PPCO 26% PLO 15% PVO 15% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 38% PPCO 26% PLO 16% PVO 15% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 38% PPCO 26% PLO 16% PVO 14% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 39% PPCO 26% PLO 15% PVO 14% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 40% PPCO 23% PVO 17% PLO 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 41% PPCO 23% PVO 16% PLO 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 40% PPCO 24% PVO 15% PLO 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 40% PPCO 24% PVO 15% PLO 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 41% PPCO 23% PLO 16% PVO 15% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 41% PPCO 24% PLO 15% PVO 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PVO 47% NPD 25% PPCO 17% PLO 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PVO 47% NPD 24% PPCO 17% PLO 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PVO 46% NPD 24% PPCO 17% PLO 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO 48% NPD 22% PPCO 16% PLO 13% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PVO 45% PPCO 23% NPD 19% PLO 12% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PVO 44% PPCO 23% NPD 20% PLO 11% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PVO 44% PPCO 25% NPD 19% PLO 11% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PVO 44% PPCO 25% NPD 19% PLO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PVO 44% PPCO 26% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PVO 45% PPCO 25% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Kitchener Centre

PLO <1% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PVO >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 77% PPCO 17% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 45% PLO 39% PPCO 17% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 43% PLO 39% PPCO 18% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 41% PLO 40% PPCO 18% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 47% NPD 39% PPCO 15% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 47% NPD 39% PPCO 14% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 49% NPD 39% PPCO 12% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 57% NPD 32% PPCO 11% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 51% NPD 36% PPCO 12% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 41% PLO 39% PPCO 20% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 40% NPD 39% PPCO 21% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 40% NPD 37% PPCO 23% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 40% NPD 36% PPCO 23% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 38% PLO 34% PPCO 28% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 42% NPD 39% PPCO 19% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 35% PLO 35% PPCO 30% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 37% PLO 32% PPCO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 38% PPCO 32% PLO 30% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 46% PPCO 28% PLO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 46% PPCO 28% PLO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 48% PLO 27% PPCO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 42% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 27% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 27% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 40% PPCO 33% PLO 27% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 60% PPCO 34% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 47% PPCO 46% PLO 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 49% PPCO 45% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 49% PPCO 45% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 47% PPCO 47% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 51% PPCO 46% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Kitchener Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 26,8% 43,4% 40,6% 18% ± 7% PPCO 25,2% 27,7% 26,7% 25% ± 8% PLO 40,5% 20,1% 14,7% 10% ± 5% PVO 6,3% 6,8% 12,8% 45% ± 11% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,3% 1% ± 2%