Haldimand—Norfolk
Député(e) : Brady, Bobbi Ann (IND)
Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
IND enclin
Haldimand—Norfolk
38% ± 12%▲
IND
30% ± 9%▼
PPCO
11% ± 5%
NPD
9% ± 4%▲
PLO
5% ± 4%
PVO
4% ± 3%
PON
PPCO 2022
30,5%
Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des
sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit
pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125,
cliquez ici .
50%
100%
Haldimand—Norfolk
87%▲
IND
13%▼
PPCO
<1%
NPD
Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles
si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui . Elles sont calculées par un programme de type
Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).
Projection du vote | Haldimand—Norfolk
PLO 9% ± 4%
PPCO 30% ± 9%
NPD 11% ± 5%
PVO 5% ± 4%
PON 4% ± 3%
IND 38% ± 12%
Projection du vote % | Haldimand—Norfolk
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022-05-01
2022-09-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-05-01
2023-09-01
2024►
2024-01-01
2024-05-01
2024-09-01
2025►
2025-01-01
2025-05-01
Élection 2022
PLO
PPCO
NPD
PVO
PON
IND
9 octobre 2024
2022-04-30
PPCO 56%
NPD 16%
PLO 16%
PVO 6%
2022-04-30
2022-05-03
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-03
2022-05-04
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-04
2022-05-05
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-05
2022-05-06
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-06
2022-05-07
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-07
2022-05-08
PPCO 54%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-08
2022-05-09
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 6%
2022-05-09
2022-05-10
PPCO 54%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 6%
2022-05-10
2022-05-11
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-11
2022-05-12
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-12
2022-05-13
PPCO 56%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-13
2022-05-14
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 15%
PVO 6%
2022-05-14
2022-05-15
PPCO 55%
NPD 18%
PLO 14%
PVO 5%
2022-05-15
2022-05-16
PPCO 54%
NPD 19%
PLO 15%
PVO 5%
2022-05-16
2022-05-17
PPCO 53%
PLO 18%
NPD 17%
PVO 6%
2022-05-17
2022-05-18
PPCO 53%
PLO 17%
NPD 17%
PVO 6%
2022-05-18
2022-05-19
PPCO 52%
NPD 17%
PLO 17%
PVO 7%
2022-05-19
2022-05-20
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 17%
PVO 8%
2022-05-20
2022-05-21
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 8%
2022-05-21
2022-05-22
PPCO 51%
NPD 19%
PLO 17%
PVO 8%
2022-05-22
2022-05-23
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 8%
2022-05-23
2022-05-24
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 8%
2022-05-24
2022-05-25
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 7%
2022-05-25
2022-05-26
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 8%
2022-05-26
2022-05-27
PPCO 51%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 7%
2022-05-27
2022-05-28
PPCO 52%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 7%
2022-05-28
2022-05-29
PPCO 52%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 7%
2022-05-29
2022-05-30
PPCO 52%
NPD 18%
PLO 16%
PVO 7%
2022-05-30
2022-05-31
PPCO 53%
NPD 17%
PLO 15%
PVO 7%
2022-05-31
2022-06-01
PPCO 56%
NPD 16%
PLO 15%
PVO 7%
2022-06-01
2022-06-03
PPCO 30%
NPD 14%
PLO 7%
PVO 4%
2022-06-03
2022-12-30
PPCO 31%
NPD 14%
PLO 7%
PVO 4%
2022-12-30
2023-02-15
PPCO 30%
NPD 13%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2023-02-15
2023-03-09
PPCO 30%
NPD 13%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2023-03-09
2023-03-17
PPCO 30%
NPD 13%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2023-03-17
2023-04-16
PPCO 30%
NPD 13%
PLO 7%
PVO 5%
2023-04-16
2023-07-07
PPCO 27%
NPD 15%
PLO 8%
PVO 6%
2023-07-07
2023-07-22
PPCO 27%
NPD 15%
PLO 8%
PVO 6%
2023-07-22
2023-07-28
PPCO 28%
NPD 14%
PLO 8%
PVO 6%
2023-07-28
2023-08-26
PPCO 28%
NPD 14%
PLO 8%
PVO 6%
2023-08-26
2023-10-07
PPCO 26%
NPD 15%
PLO 8%
PVO 6%
2023-10-07
2023-10-23
PPCO 28%
NPD 14%
PLO 7%
PVO 5%
2023-10-23
2023-12-01
PPCO 30%
NPD 14%
PLO 7%
PVO 6%
2023-12-01
2023-12-20
PPCO 29%
NPD 14%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2023-12-20
2024-02-02
PPCO 29%
NPD 14%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2024-02-02
2024-02-20
PPCO 27%
NPD 12%
PLO 10%
PVO 5%
2024-02-20
2024-03-05
PPCO 28%
NPD 12%
PLO 10%
PVO 5%
2024-03-05
2024-04-04
PPCO 28%
NPD 12%
PLO 9%
PVO 5%
2024-04-04
2024-05-03
PPCO 29%
NPD 12%
PLO 9%
PVO 5%
2024-05-03
2024-06-30
PPCO 29%
NPD 12%
PLO 9%
PVO 5%
2024-06-30
2024-07-29
PPCO 31%
NPD 11%
PLO 8%
PVO 5%
2024-07-29
2024-10-09
PPCO 30%
NPD 11%
PLO 9%
PVO 5%
2024-10-09
Probabilités de victoire | Haldimand—Norfolk
PLO <1%
PPCO 13%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
IND 87%
Probabilité de victoire
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022-05-01
2022-09-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-05-01
2023-09-01
2024►
2024-01-01
2024-05-01
2024-09-01
2025►
2025-01-01
2025-05-01
Élection 2022
PLO
PPCO
NPD
PVO
IND
9 octobre 2024
2022-04-30
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-04-30
2022-05-03
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-03
2022-05-04
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-04
2022-05-05
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-05
2022-05-06
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-06
2022-05-07
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-07
2022-05-08
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-08
2022-05-09
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-09
2022-05-10
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-10
2022-05-11
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-11
2022-05-12
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-12
2022-05-13
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-13
2022-05-14
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-14
2022-05-15
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-15
2022-05-16
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-16
2022-05-17
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-17
2022-05-18
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-18
2022-05-19
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-19
2022-05-20
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-20
2022-05-21
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-21
2022-05-22
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-22
2022-05-23
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-23
2022-05-24
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-24
2022-05-25
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-25
2022-05-26
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-26
2022-05-27
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-27
2022-05-28
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-28
2022-05-29
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-29
2022-05-30
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-30
2022-05-31
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-05-31
2022-06-01
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-06-01
2022-06-03
PPCO 11%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-06-03
2022-12-30
PPCO 29%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-12-30
2023-02-15
PPCO 22%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-02-15
2023-03-09
PPCO 22%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-03-09
2023-03-17
PPCO 22%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-03-17
2023-04-16
PPCO 22%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-04-16
2023-07-07
PPCO 11%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-07-07
2023-07-22
PPCO 12%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-07-22
2023-07-28
PPCO 14%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-07-28
2023-08-26
PPCO 15%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-08-26
2023-10-07
PPCO 9%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-10-07
2023-10-23
PPCO 12%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-10-23
2023-12-01
PPCO 19%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-12-01
2023-12-20
PPCO 17%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2023-12-20
2024-02-02
PPCO 15%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
PLO <1%
2024-02-02
2024-02-20
PPCO 8%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-02-20
2024-03-05
PPCO 8%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-03-05
2024-04-04
PPCO 9%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-04-04
2024-05-03
PPCO 10%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-05-03
2024-06-30
PPCO 12%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-06-30
2024-07-29
PPCO 17%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-07-29
2024-10-09
PPCO 13%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2024-10-09
Historique récent | Haldimand—Norfolk
2014
2018
2022
Proj.
PPCO
52,2%
57,1%
30,5%
30% ± 9%
NPD
23,2%
26,9%
13,9%
11% ± 5%
PLO
19,7%
9,2%
7,3%
9% ± 4%
PON
0,0%
0,0%
5,2%
4% ± 3%
PVO
4,9%
4,1%
4,1%
5% ± 4%
PNBO
0,0%
0,0%
3,2%
2% ± 2%
IND
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
38% ± 12%