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Ontario

Haldimand—Norfolk


Député(e) : Brady, Bobbi Ann (IND)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
IND enclin
Haldimand—Norfolk 37% ± 12%▼ IND 30% ± 9% PPCO 11% ± 5% NPD 9% ± 4% PLO 5% ± 3% PVO 4% ± 3% PON PPCO 2022 30,5% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk 86%▼ IND 14%▲ PPCO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Haldimand—Norfolk

PLO 9% ± 4% PPCO 30% ± 9% NPD 11% ± 5% PVO 5% ± 3% PON 4% ± 3% IND 37% ± 12% Projection du vote % | Haldimand—Norfolk 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PON IND 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 56% NPD 16% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 54% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 54% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 56% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 55% NPD 18% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 54% NPD 19% PLO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 53% PLO 18% NPD 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 53% PLO 17% NPD 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 52% NPD 17% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 51% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 52% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 52% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 52% NPD 18% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 53% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 56% NPD 16% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 30% NPD 14% PLO 7% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 31% NPD 14% PLO 7% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 30% NPD 13% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 30% NPD 13% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 30% NPD 13% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 30% NPD 13% PLO 7% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 27% NPD 15% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 27% NPD 15% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 28% NPD 14% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 28% NPD 14% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 26% NPD 15% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 28% NPD 14% PLO 7% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 30% NPD 14% PLO 7% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 29% NPD 14% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 29% NPD 14% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 27% NPD 12% PLO 10% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 28% NPD 12% PLO 10% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 28% NPD 12% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 29% NPD 12% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 29% NPD 12% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 31% NPD 11% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 30% NPD 11% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 30% NPD 11% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Haldimand—Norfolk

PLO <1% PPCO 14% NPD <1% PVO <1% IND 86% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO IND 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 11% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 29% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 11% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 14% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 17% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 15% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 17% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 13% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 14% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Haldimand—Norfolk



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 52,2% 57,1% 30,5% 30% ± 9% NPD 23,2% 26,9% 13,9% 11% ± 5% PLO 19,7% 9,2% 7,3% 9% ± 4% PON 0,0% 0,0% 5,2% 4% ± 3% PVO 4,9% 4,1% 4,1% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 3,2% 2% ± 2% IND 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 37% ± 12%