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Ontario

Guelph


Député(e) : Schreiner, Mike (PVO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PVO solide
Guelph 55% ± 11% PVO 20% ± 7% PPCO 15% ± 6% PLO 7% ± 4% NPD PVO 2022 54,5% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Guelph >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Guelph

PLO 15% ± 6% PPCO 20% ± 7% NPD 7% ± 4% PVO 55% ± 11% Projection du vote % | Guelph 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PVO 43% PPCO 21% PLO 18% NPD 12% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PVO 43% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PVO 43% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PVO 43% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 17% NPD 15% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PVO 42% PPCO 20% PLO 17% NPD 15% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PVO 42% PPCO 21% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PVO 41% PPCO 22% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PVO 41% PPCO 21% PLO 17% NPD 15% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PVO 42% PPCO 20% PLO 19% NPD 14% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PVO 42% PPCO 20% PLO 19% NPD 14% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PVO 46% PPCO 19% PLO 17% NPD 13% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PVO 46% PPCO 18% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PVO 46% PPCO 18% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PVO 47% PPCO 17% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PVO 47% PPCO 18% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PVO 47% PPCO 18% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PVO 47% PPCO 17% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PVO 48% PPCO 17% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PVO 47% PPCO 18% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PVO 47% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PVO 47% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PVO 47% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PVO 46% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 14% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PVO 45% PPCO 21% PLO 15% NPD 13% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PVO 55% PPCO 20% PLO 13% NPD 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PVO 54% PPCO 20% PLO 13% NPD 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PVO 58% PPCO 19% PLO 13% NPD 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PVO 57% PPCO 19% PLO 13% NPD 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PVO 57% PPCO 19% PLO 13% NPD 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PVO 57% PPCO 19% PLO 13% NPD 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PVO 59% PPCO 16% PLO 13% NPD 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PVO 58% PPCO 17% PLO 13% NPD 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PVO 56% PPCO 18% PLO 14% NPD 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PVO 56% PPCO 18% PLO 14% NPD 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PVO 57% PPCO 17% PLO 14% NPD 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PVO 56% PPCO 18% PLO 14% NPD 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PVO 56% PPCO 20% PLO 13% NPD 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PVO 55% PPCO 19% PLO 14% NPD 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PVO 54% PPCO 19% PLO 15% NPD 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO 54% PPCO 18% PLO 17% NPD 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PVO 55% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PVO 54% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PVO 55% PPCO 19% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PVO 55% PPCO 20% PLO 15% NPD 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PVO 55% PPCO 20% PLO 15% NPD 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PVO 55% PPCO 20% PLO 15% NPD 7% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Guelph

PLO <1% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PVO >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PVO >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PVO >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PVO >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PVO >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PVO >99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Guelph



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PVO 19,3% 45,0% 54,5% 55% ± 11% PPCO 20,8% 21,8% 20,4% 20% ± 7% PLO 41,5% 10,1% 13,3% 15% ± 6% NPD 17,7% 21,6% 8,1% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 3,0% 2% ± 2%