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Ontario
Drapeau de l’Ontario

Guelph

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026
V
Député(e) : Mike Schreiner
Parti vert de l’Ontario
PVO solide
Projection — Guelph → Projection régionale — Sud-ouest de l'Ontario → Circonscriptions provinciales de l’Ontario → Carte de la projection de l’Ontario → Sondages de l’Ontario → Page d’accueil de l’Ontario → Simulateur de l’Ontario → Roulette de comté ! →

Historique récent | Guelph


2018 2022 2025 Projection PVO 56% ± 11% 45,0% 54,5% 56,9% PC 25% ± 8% 21,8% 20,4% 23,9% PLO 11% ± 5% 10,1% 13,3% 11,4% NPD 6% ± 3% 21,6% 8,1% 5,8% PNBO 2% ± 2% 0,0% 3,0% 1,9%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Guelph

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Guelph 45% 66% 56% ± 11% PVO 18% 33% 25% ± 8% ▼ PC 7% 16% 11% ± 5% PLO 3% 9% 6% ± 3% NPD PVO 2025 56,94% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Guelph >99% PVO <1% PC <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Guelph

PLO 11% ± 5% PC 25% ± 8% NPD 6% ± 3% PVO 56% ± 11% Projection du vote % | Guelph 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PVO 53% PC 21% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PVO 53% PC 21% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PVO 50% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PVO 50% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PVO 50% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PVO 50% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 16% NPD 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PVO 51% PC 24% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PVO 51% PC 25% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PVO 50% PC 26% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PVO 49% PC 27% PLO 17% NPD 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PVO 57% PC 24% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PVO 57% PC 24% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PVO 57% PC 24% PLO 12% NPD 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PVO 56% PC 25% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PVO 55% PC 27% PLO 11% NPD 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PVO 55% PC 27% PLO 11% NPD 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PVO 55% PC 27% PLO 11% NPD 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PVO 55% PC 26% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PVO 56% PC 26% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PVO 56% PC 25% PLO 11% NPD 6% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Guelph

PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PVO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18