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Ontario

Davenport


Député(e) : Stiles, Marit (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 15 décembre 2024
NPD solide
Davenport 53% ± 9%▲ NPD 21% ± 7%▼ PLO 15% ± 6% PPCO 6% ± 4%▼ PVO NPD 2022 57,1% Projection du vote | 15 décembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Davenport >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 15 décembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Davenport

PLO 21% ± 7% PPCO 15% ± 6% NPD 53% ± 9% PVO 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Davenport 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 15 décembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 46% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 46% PLO 28% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 45% PLO 30% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 45% PLO 30% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 45% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 44% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 44% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 44% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 44% PLO 29% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 42% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 40% PLO 32% PPCO 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 39% PLO 32% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 40% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 40% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 40% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 40% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 40% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 39% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 39% PLO 31% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 39% PLO 30% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 38% PLO 31% PPCO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 38% PLO 31% PPCO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 41% PLO 30% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 41% PLO 30% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 41% PLO 30% PPCO 16% PVO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 57% PLO 19% PPCO 14% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 57% PLO 19% PPCO 14% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 55% PLO 20% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 54% PLO 21% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 54% PLO 21% PPCO 14% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 55% PLO 20% PPCO 14% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 57% PLO 19% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 57% PLO 20% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 57% PLO 20% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 56% PLO 20% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 57% PLO 20% PPCO 11% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 57% PLO 19% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 57% PLO 19% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 56% PLO 21% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 55% PLO 21% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 53% PLO 24% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 52% PLO 24% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 53% PLO 22% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 53% PLO 22% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 53% PLO 21% PPCO 14% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 52% PLO 22% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 52% PLO 22% PPCO 14% PVO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 52% PLO 22% PPCO 15% PVO 7% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NPD 53% PLO 21% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2024-12-15

Probabilités de victoire | Davenport

PLO <1% PPCO <1% NPD >99% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 15 décembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NPD >99% PVO <1% PPCO <1% PLO <1% 2024-12-15

Historique récent | Davenport



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 40,1% 60,3% 57,1% 53% ± 9% PLO 45,6% 18,7% 19,2% 21% ± 7% PPCO 7,5% 16,1% 14,1% 15% ± 6% PVO 5,0% 3,6% 4,8% 6% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1%