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Dernière mise à jour: 10 mai 2021
| Chef | François Legault |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2018 | 37.4% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 46.9% ± 5.5% |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 76 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 95 ± 11 |
Liste des circonscriptions favorables au Coalition avenir Québec
| Rang | Circonscription | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Granby |  |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 2. | Arthabaska | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 3. | L'Assomption | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 4. | Mirabel | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 6. | Champlain | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 7. | Saint-Hyacinthe | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 8. | Nicolet-Bécancour | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 9. | Rousseau | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 10. | Blainville | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 11. | Johnson | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 12. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 13. | Chambly | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 14. | Beauce-Nord | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 15. | Repentigny | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 16. | Masson | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 17. | Les Plaines | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 18. | Borduas | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 19. | Richelieu | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 20. | Deux-Montagnes | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 21. | Beauharnois | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 22. | Iberville | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 23. | Vachon | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 24. | Lévis | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 25. | La Prairie | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 26. | Portneuf | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 27. | Sanguinet | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 28. | Prévost | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 29. | Montarville | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 30. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 31. | Groulx | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 32. | Abitibi-Est | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 33. | Beauce-Sud | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 34. | Mégantic | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 35. | La Peltrie | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 36. | Saint-Jérôme | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 37. | Bellechasse | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 38. | Côte-du-Sud | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 39. | Berthier | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 40. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 41. | Terrebonne | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 42. | Roberval | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 43. | Trois-Rivières | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 44. | Bertrand | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 45. | Saint-Jean | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 46. | Argenteuil | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 47. | Papineau | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 48. | Vanier-Les Rivières | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 49. | Charlesbourg | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 50. | Montmorency | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 51. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 52. | Dubuc | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 53. | Louis-Hébert | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 54. | Richmond | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 55. | Brome-Missisquoi | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 56. | Chauveau | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 57. | Chicoutimi | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 58. | Taillon | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 59. | Saint-François | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 60. | Maskinongé | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 61. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 62. | Orford | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 63. | Verchères | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 64. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 65. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 66. | Gatineau | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 67. | Labelle | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 68. | Bourget | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 69. | Jean-Talon | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 70. | Sainte-Rose | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 71. | Soulanges | |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 72. | Marie-Victorin |  |
CAQ solide | >99% |
| 73. | Abitibi-Ouest | |
CAQ probable | 99% |
| 74. | Duplessis |  |
CAQ probable | 99% |
| 75. | Chapleau | |
CAQ probable | 98% |
| 76. | Huntingdon | |
CAQ probable | 98% |
| 77. | Ungava | |
CAQ probable | 96% |
| 78. | Laval-des-Rapides |  |
CAQ probable | 96% |
| 79. | René-Lévesque | |
CAQ probable | 96% |
| 80. | Châteauguay | |
CAQ probable | 95% |
| 81. | Rimouski | |
CAQ probable | 94% |
| 82. | Hull | |
CAQ probable | 93% |
| 83. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue |  |
CAQ enclin | 88% |
| 84. | Jonquière | |
CAQ enclin | 87% |
| 85. | Jean-Lesage | |
CAQ enclin | 87% |
| 86. | Fabre | |
CAQ enclin | 87% |
| 87. | Bonaventure | |
CAQ enclin | 86% |
| 88. | Gaspé | |
CAQ enclin | 81% |
| 89. | Mille-Îles | |
CAQ enclin | 80% |
| 90. | Joliette | |
CAQ enclin | 78% |
| 91. | Maurice-Richard | |
CAQ enclin | 75% |
| 92. | Vimont | |
CAQ enclin | 73% |
| 93. | Verdun | |
CAQ enclin | 73% |
| 94. | Sherbrooke | |
Pivot | 67% |
| 95. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | |
Pivot | 59% |
| 96. | Taschereau | |
Pivot | 55% |
| 97. | Laporte | |
Pivot | 51% |
| 98. | Vaudreuil | |
Pivot | 50% |
| 99. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | |
Pivot | 44% |
| 100. | Rosemont | |
Pivot | 41% |
| 101. | Marquette | |
PLQ enclin | 27% |
| 102. | La Pinière | |
PLQ enclin | 26% |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | |
PLQ enclin | 14% |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | |
PLQ enclin | 11% |
| 105. | LaFontaine | |
PLQ probable | 5% |
| 106. | Pontiac | |
PLQ probable | 3% |
| 107. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | |
PLQ probable | 2% |
| 108. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | |
QS probable | 2% |
| 109. | Viau | |
PLQ probable | 1% |
| 110. | Chomedey | |
PLQ probable | <1% |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Granby | CAQ solide |
| 2. | Arthabaska | CAQ solide |
| 3. | L'Assomption | CAQ solide |
| 4. | Mirabel | CAQ solide |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | CAQ solide |
| 6. | Champlain | CAQ solide |
| 7. | Saint-Hyacinthe | CAQ solide |
| 8. | Nicolet-Bécancour | CAQ solide |
| 9. | Rousseau | CAQ solide |
| 10. | Blainville | CAQ solide |
| 11. | Johnson | CAQ solide |
| 12. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | CAQ solide |
| 13. | Chambly | CAQ solide |
| 14. | Beauce-Nord | CAQ solide |
| 15. | Repentigny | CAQ solide |
| 16. | Masson | CAQ solide |
| 17. | Les Plaines | CAQ solide |
| 18. | Borduas | CAQ solide |
| 19. | Richelieu | CAQ solide |
| 20. | Deux-Montagnes | CAQ solide |
| 21. | Beauharnois | CAQ solide |
| 22. | Iberville | CAQ solide |
| 23. | Vachon | CAQ solide |
| 24. | Lévis | CAQ solide |
| 25. | La Prairie | CAQ solide |
| 26. | Portneuf | CAQ solide |
| 27. | Sanguinet | CAQ solide |
| 28. | Prévost | CAQ solide |
| 29. | Montarville | CAQ solide |
| 30. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | CAQ solide |
| 31. | Groulx | CAQ solide |
| 32. | Abitibi-Est | CAQ solide |
| 33. | Beauce-Sud | CAQ solide |
| 34. | Mégantic | CAQ solide |
| 35. | La Peltrie | CAQ solide |
| 36. | Saint-Jérôme | CAQ solide |
| 37. | Bellechasse | CAQ solide |
| 38. | Côte-du-Sud | CAQ solide |
| 39. | Berthier | CAQ solide |
| 40. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | CAQ solide |
| 41. | Terrebonne | CAQ solide |
| 42. | Roberval | CAQ solide |
| 43. | Trois-Rivières | CAQ solide |
| 44. | Bertrand | CAQ solide |
| 45. | Saint-Jean | CAQ solide |
| 46. | Argenteuil | CAQ solide |
| 47. | Papineau | CAQ solide |
| 48. | Vanier-Les Rivières | CAQ solide |
| 49. | Charlesbourg | CAQ solide |
| 50. | Montmorency | CAQ solide |
| 51. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | CAQ solide |
| 52. | Dubuc | CAQ solide |
| 53. | Louis-Hébert | CAQ solide |
| 54. | Richmond | CAQ solide |
| 55. | Brome-Missisquoi | CAQ solide |
| 56. | Chauveau | CAQ solide |
| 57. | Chicoutimi | CAQ solide |
| 58. | Taillon | CAQ solide |
| 59. | Saint-François | CAQ solide |
| 60. | Maskinongé | CAQ solide |
| 61. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | CAQ solide |
| 62. | Orford | CAQ solide |
| 63. | Verchères | CAQ solide |
| 64. | Lac-Saint-Jean | CAQ solide |
| 65. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | CAQ solide |
| 66. | Gatineau | CAQ solide |
| 67. | Labelle | CAQ solide |
| 68. | Bourget | CAQ solide |
| 69. | Jean-Talon | CAQ solide |
| 70. | Sainte-Rose | CAQ solide |
| 71. | Soulanges | CAQ solide |
| 72. | Marie-Victorin | CAQ solide |
| 73. | Abitibi-Ouest | CAQ probable |
| 74. | Duplessis | CAQ probable |
| 75. | Chapleau | CAQ probable |
| 76. | Huntingdon | CAQ probable |
| 77. | Ungava | CAQ probable |
| 78. | Laval-des-Rapides | CAQ probable |
| 79. | René-Lévesque | CAQ probable |
| 80. | Châteauguay | CAQ probable |
| 81. | Rimouski | CAQ probable |
| 82. | Hull | CAQ probable |
| 83. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | CAQ enclin |
| 84. | Jonquière | CAQ enclin |
| 85. | Jean-Lesage | CAQ enclin |
| 86. | Fabre | CAQ enclin |
| 87. | Bonaventure | CAQ enclin |
| 88. | Gaspé | CAQ enclin |
| 89. | Mille-Îles | CAQ enclin |
| 90. | Joliette | CAQ enclin |
| 91. | Maurice-Richard | CAQ enclin |
| 92. | Vimont | CAQ enclin |
| 93. | Verdun | CAQ enclin |
| 94. | Sherbrooke | Pivot |
| 95. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Pivot |
| 96. | Taschereau | Pivot |
| 97. | Laporte | Pivot |
| 98. | Vaudreuil | Pivot |
| 99. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Pivot |
| 100. | Rosemont | Pivot |
| 101. | Marquette | PLQ enclin |
| 102. | La Pinière | PLQ enclin |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | PLQ enclin |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | PLQ enclin |
| 105. | LaFontaine | PLQ probable |
| 106. | Pontiac | PLQ probable |
| 107. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | PLQ probable |
| 108. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS probable |
| 109. | Viau | PLQ probable |
| 110. | Chomedey | PLQ probable |